Indianapolis Colts: Roster Turnover, Inexperience Could Keep Colts in AFC South Basement in 2012

Colts.com

By Kris Knox
Senior Writer


After witnessing the Peyton Manning-less debacle that was the Indianapolis Colts’ 2011 football season, most fans understood that drastic change was on the horizon.

However, the extent of change that Indianapolis would undergo this offseason was still a shock to most.

Indianapolis brought in a new head coach in Chuck Pagano, a new general manager in Ryan Grigson, unleashed a mass exodus of longtime veterans and even gave the almighty Manning the boot.

The drafting of former Stanford signal-caller Andrew Luck certainly provides a sense of hope for this new chapter in Colts history, but the sheer magnitude of the overhaul is likely to lead to numerous struggles in 2012.

The good news is that the Colts have nowhere to go but up.

Biggest asset


While Luck is certain to garner most of the attention this season, the Colts biggest strength appears to lie in the one facet of the franchise that does return from years past—its disruptive pass rush.

After granting defensive end Robert Mathis a five-year, $30 million contract extension and holding onto defensive end Dwight Freeney amid trade speculation, the Colts ensure that their fearsome pass-rushing tandem will remain intact.

Despite battling through last season’s struggles, Freeney and Mathis still managed to combine for an impressive 18 sacks in 2011. That number could realistically rise this season in coordinator Greg Manusky‘s hybrid 3-4 defense, especially if Luck is able to ignite the offense enough that opponents will be forced to rely on the passing game.

In an increasingly pass-driven league, the Colts’ ability to pressure the quarterback and force mistakes should give the team a chance to remain competitive throughout this grueling transition.

Most significant weakness


Indianapolis’ potential for success this season will largely rest on Luck’s ability to adapt to the nuances of the pro game. In turn, Luck’s potential to thrive will rest on the ability of the talent around him to make him successful—and therein lies the problem.

As mentioned earlier, the Colts have experienced an enormous amount of roster turnover, which will undoubtedly affect the team’s chemistry. While a few key veterans—such as Mathis, Freeney, wide receiver Reggie Wayne and running back Donald Brown—do return, the roster as a whole takes on an almost expansion team feel.

No one is doubting that Luck can eventually lead the Colts back into NFL relevance, but his ability to direct the team as a cohesive unit will likely take time to develop—perhaps an entire season.

Most important camp battle


With the quarterback position solidified for the foreseeable future, the biggest camp battle in Indianapolis will come down to the competition at running back. A solid running game can be a young quarterback’s best friend. Remember, even Manning had to rely on future Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk as a rookie.

Brown is likely to earn first crack at the starting job with Joseph Addai now out of the picture, but even Brown fails to inspire confidence. Brown did produce a respectable 4.8 yards per carry average last season, but did so on only 134 carries. If Brown is to emerge as a full-time starter, he will have to erase any standing injury and consistency concerns, which could prove difficult.

Second-year back Delone Carter will also have a stake in the competiton. Like Brown, Carter showed flashes last season, but has a long way to go before proving he is capable of handling the load as an every down back. If neither Brown or Carter emerges from training camp as a clear-cut starter, the team will likely be forced to assemble a backfield committee from a group that also includes Darren Evans, Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore and rookie fifth-round pick Vick Ballard.

Wild card


Just because the Colts have a plethora of obstacles to overcome this season, doesn’t mean the team has no chance to exceed expectations. For Indianapolis, the biggest wild card will be Luck.

Indianapolis drafted Luck’s Stanford teammate and No. 1 target tight end Coby Fleener, so the young quarterback should benefit from some instant chemistry. If Luck can find a way to click early with receivers Wayne, Austin Colle, Donnie Avery and rookie T.Y. Hilton and get some help from the running game, the Colts offense certainly has the potential to produce this season.

If Luck and the rest of the offense can manage to put up points on a consistent basis, the Colts can unleash their revamped 3-4 defense into attack mode, which should lead to some interesting—and hopefully competitive—football. Of course, all of that depends on whether Luck sinks or swims under the pressure of being a first-year NFL quarterback.

Projected finish


Indianapolis faces a tough schedule this season, made even tougher by a recent AFC South power shift. However, it presents winnable games against Jacksonville (twice), Minnesota, Cleveland and a season finale against Houston that could see the Texans with little to play for.

It is not out of the realm of possibility for the Colts to finish the season with as many as six or seven wins, but due the uncertainties along the roster and the pressure the team is sure to face this season, expect Indianapolis to hang around the three or four win mark to finish last place in the division.

Follow on Twitter: @Kris_Knox

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