Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Steve Woodhull

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Here are my Week 1 NFL picks against the spread (ATS):

New England Patriots -10.5 (over Buffalo Bills)

Arguably the best team in the NFL against one of the worst on opening day. And if the Bills just want to make it easy on us, they are starting rookie E.J. Manuel. This line will be getting blown out right up to game time and I’d easily consider the Patriots a two-touchdown favorite.

Last year, the Patriots won their two showdowns against the Bills by an average of 15 points per contest – that seems like a more appropriate spread for this contest. The Bills may be heading in the right direction and Manuel may be a future star, but a Bill Belichick-coached team will have a rookie baffled on opening day.

I expect a 31-10 Patriots route with only a couple of minor accusations of running up the score.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 (over Chicago Bears)

If it wasn’t completely obvious in the division-by-division picks, I’m all-in on the Bengals this year and it starts in week 1. The Bengals have as much talent across the board as any team in the NFL, and it gels this year. However, playing in Chicago is tough for any team, and the Bears will be fired up to play for their new coach.

Given what’s at stake after knocking on the door, though, I just think the Bengals will view this game as the start of their make-or-break season. The Bengals may have been over-hyped throughout the preseason, but they will focused to start with a win.

I see expect the Bengals to win (and cover), 17-7.

St. Louis Rams -4.5 (over Arizona Cardinals)

10 and 3 – those are my numbers for this game.

That would be 10 sacks of Carson Palmer and three turnovers by the Cardinals offense as the Rams wake up the rest of the world to what’s been brewing under the gateway arch.

The ridiculously good Ram defensive line might even make Carson Palmer wish he was back in Oakland as the Cards might have the worst O-line in football. Arizona’s defense, not quite as good as last year but still better than average, might be able to keep this competitive.

Ultimately though Sam Bradford won’t need to be great for the Rams, he just needs competent. The score may seem closer than the feel of the game, but Rams win in a dominating way: 20-6.

Five contributors make weekly picks ATS and they will be posted here.

2013 fantasy rankings: Quarterbacks – Running Backs – Wide Receivers – Tight Ends

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