Prospect Report: Scouting Carlos Rodon & Determining If He’s A Must Draft For ’15

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There are certainly questions at the back of the White Sox rotation, even when everybody is healthy, with John Danks and Hector Noesi penciled into the final two spots.  Does anyone truly believe that either will be successful?  Is it hard to imagine that either will be replaced before long?  Enter Carlos Rodon, the southpaw who was the third pick in the 2014 draft.

There had been rumblings that he could be pushed all the way to the Majors in ’14, and while that didn’t happen he did reach Triple-A and there’s little doubt that he’ll arrive at some point in ’15.  When, exactly, is not yet known but it may not be long.

Rodon has been impressive this spring, with a 3.65 ERA, 19 K and 3 BB over 12.1 innings of work.  I’ve been lucky enough to watch his last two outings (a total of 5.0 innings of work) and here’s a few of my thoughts:

1. Fastball – It has good life, with opponents often being late and fouling it off.  While he touched 97, he sat in the 94-95 range in his last outing (4.0 IP).
2. Slider/Cutter – He did a good job of varying the speeds (it was clocked anywhere from 85-91), which helps given his current lack of a true third pitch.  It’s almost unfair against left-handed hitters (who repeatedly looked silly against it) and is also effective against right-handed hitters.
3. Location – He worked down in the zone, hammering it at the knees, but his fastball has the potential to generate swings and misses when elevated.
4. Swings & Misses – When people look at 9 K in 4.0 IP they are going to be impressed, but it’s how he got them that’s even nore important.  He generated 11 swings and misses in his last outing and has 15 over the 5.0 innings I’ve seen.  It wasn’t just against minor leaguers either with Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and others in there for his last outing (the Royals’ lineup likely looked similar to their Opening Day squad).

Just with those four notes we know he’s going to be an above average starter in the Major Leagues, but he could be downright scary if he can develop his changeup.  If he could even get that pitch to league average he could quickly rise to a Top 10 option.  Since I didn’t see it very much in what I’ve seen, here is what others have said about it:

MLB.com – “Though Rodon will tip off his changeup by slowing his arm speed at times, he has some feel for the pitch, and it can be deceptive.”

Rich Wilson of Prospect 361 – “The change-up needs work, but in his defense, he rarely threw it in college.”

Could the White Sox hold him back a little bit longer than we think, forcing him to develop the pitch?  It’s possible, but for a team looking to challenge for a World Series they may not have much patience.  In other words, stashing Rodon in all formats makes a lot of sense.

Sources – MLB.com, Prospect 361

Make sure to check out all of our 2015 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders: 1-20 | 21-40
• Starting Pitchers: 1-20 | 21-40
• Relief Pitchers

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