Sleeper Spotlight: Will Kevin Gausman Finally Live Up To The Hype?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Orioles’ Kevin Gausman is going to be an easy pitcher to overlook heading into 2015.  It felt like the team was trying to put him in a position to fail nearly every time they turned to him in 2014, en route to him posting the following numbers:

113.1 IP
7 Wins
3.57 ERA
1.31 WHIP
88 Strikeouts (6.99 K/9)
38 Walks (3.02 BB/9)
41.4% Groundball Rate
.304 BABIP

The numbers are certainly unspectacular, but looking at them on their own would be ignoring the upside of the former fourth overall draft pick.  In 142.1 innings in the minor leagues he’s shown strikeouts (8.85 K/9), control (2.15 BB/9) and enough groundballs (46.9%), so the question is going to be if he can translate those numbers to the Majors.

The strikeouts were probably the biggest disappointment, though he did raise his strikeout rate from 6.10 in the first half to 7.44 in the second.  He also showed a better SwStr% (9.0%) and O-Swing% (30.5%), both of which indicate a greater strikeout rate than he posted last season.  Mix that with a fastball that averaged 94.8 mph?  You’d expect more strikeouts moving forward.

The control was already solid (and could improve) and his groundball rate of 41.4% is respectable.  So he’s a must own, right?  While we do like him, there are definite concerns.

For one thing, Gausman leaned on his fastball too much last season by throwing it 70.5% of the time.  He’s one of only 11 pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings to throw their fastball 70+%.  You have to wonder if that helped contribute to his elevated 23.3% line drive rate?

It’s interesting, because prior to the season Rich Wilson of Prospect 361 said of Gausman’s arsenal:

“He threw hard with his four-seam fastball averaging 96.69 MPH.  It had decent movement but was hit hard implying that batters were picking it up very well.  His 84 MPH change-up looked to be his best pitched with great sink and fade.  He also threw a slider that graded out as average, but also came in at comparable speed to his change-up.”

So why did he throw his changeup just 3.7% of the time?

Meanwhile, Baseball America said:

“The Orioles decided Gausman’s slider would become his primary breaking pitch, and he made strides with the pitch by showing good depth and bite, but he lacked command and consistency.”

It’s confusing, to say the least, as there’s no doubt about his pure stuff but the Orioles seem to be messing with his secondary offerings.  Maybe that has led to some insecurities about utilizing the pitches, which has led to significant usage of his fastball and a predictability for opposing hitters.

The development of his other pitches is going to be the key to his potential success in the Majors.  He has the upside of a must own starter, so he’s worth gambling on and stashing on draft day.  That said, there’s no guarantee that he’s going to be able to put it all together.  As a depth option he’s a great selection, but don’t grab him thinking that he’s going to be a fixture of your rotation at this point.

Sources – Fangraphs, Minor League Central, Prospect 361, Baseball America

Make sure to check out all of our 2015 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders: 1-20 | 21-40
• Starting Pitchers: 1-20 | 21-40
• Relief Pitchers

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Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=25145