Will Strong Spring Performances For Steve Pearce & Michael Cuddyer Carry Into The Regular Season?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know to take Spring Training statistics with a grain of salt.  Year after year we see players erupt for big springs only to watch them stumble when the real games begin.  That doesn’t mean that all spring numbers should be ignored, we just need to be careful.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at two players who are enjoying big springs and try to figure out what to do about them:

Steve Pearce – 1B/OF – Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles’ Steve Pearce was one of the breakout performers last season, hitting .293 with 21 HR over 338 AB.  While he was once considered a strong prospect, both the power (17.5% HR/FB) and average (19.4% line drive rate, 45.6% fly ball rate, .322 BABIP) were questionable, at best.

Through Friday he’s hitting .351 with 5 HR over 37 AB though those numbers shouldn’t ease our concerns.  He hasn’t showing the ability to draw walks (0 walks this spring), and also has just one additional extra base hit (last season he had 26 doubles).

Plus, we have to take into consideration who the home runs have come against:

• Robert Zarate – Tampa Bay Rays
• Antonio Bastardo – Pittsburgh Pirates
• Cesar Jimenez – Philadelphia Phillies
• Tommy Milone – Minnesota Twins
• Jared Hughes – Pittsburgh Pirates

That is hardly an impressive group of players.  With the power expected to regress and the average a significant risk (with a significant number of fly balls, there’s a good chances his BABIP falls significantly) it’s hard to imagine his numbers staying even close to his 2014 success.  It’s been a strong spring, but we shouldn’t let it cause us to ignore the risk.

Michael Cuddyer – 1B/OF – New York Mets
The move from Coors Field to Citi Field was always going to be a concern, but hitting .350 with 5 HR (while adding 5 doubles) in 40 AB this spring likely helps to ease those concerns.  Let’s first take a look at who he’s taken deep this spring:

• Evan Meek – Washington Nationals
• Taylor Hill – Washington Nationals
• Colin McHugh – Houston Astros
• Sam Tuivailala – St. Louis Cardinals
• Mat Latos – Miami Marlins

There are a few “bigger” names in that group, with McHugh & Latos, so there is a bit more to like from the numbers.  Does that mean we should believe that he’s going to be a massive source of power for the Mets?  Of course not.  Over the past three years he hit 46 HR while a member of the Rockies:

• Home – 26 HR
• Road – 20 HR

That means he should continue to show some power, but expecting gaudy numbers in Citi Field would be a mistake.  Sure the spring performance is nice, but he’s been in the Majors since 2001 and only once has eclipsed 24 HR (32 in 2009) and has hit 20+ just four times.  Throw in the risk of injury and he should continue to be viewed as the same player he always has been.  That’s a solid option, but more of an OF4/5 at best.

Sources – MLB.com, Fangraphs

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Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=25750