Closer In Waiting Power Rankings: June 29, 2016: Will Iglesias Emerge As Reds’ Closer & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Are you someone constantly on the lookout for the next potential closer? That’s what we are trying to pinpoint here, with our Top 5 Closer In Waiting Power Rankings. These rankings look at the pitchers who appear capable of taking over their team’s respective closing duties (though in some cases, will need some help to get there). Keep in mind, if a pitcher is currently part of a committee they will not be included in these rankings despite not currently “holding” the job outright (for now we are leaving off the Tampa Bay situation)

Without further ado, let’s take a look at how things stand (all statistics are through Monday unless otherwise noted; previous ranking shown is from column on June 9):

1) Raisel Iglesias – Cincinnati Reds (5)
Current Closer – Tony Cingrani

You could argue that Michael Lorenzen will emerge as the better option, but he’s given up home runs in each of his first two outings.  It’s not that Iglesias has been lights out, but it’s also easy to argue that his overall upside is higher.  He’s shown both strikeouts and control as a starting pitcher and you don’t waste his type of upside pitching in the sixth or seventh (or even the eighth) inning unless you have a lights out closer (like former Red Aroldis Chapman).  Cincinnati simply doesn’t have that in Cingrani, so look for Iglesias (who was arguably the team’s ace) to quickly rise to a prominent relief role and ultimately take over closing duties.

2) Michael Tonkin – Minnesota Twins (NR)
Current Closer – Brandon Kintzler

Kintzler is doing it with groundballs (65.1%) and control (0.87 BB/9), but he doesn’t bring strikeout stuff (6.10 K/9) and it’s highly unlikely that he maintains an 11.1% line drive rate.  In other words there’s a good chance that he loses his grip on the role, it’s just a matter of how long it takes as he doesn’t have the traditional closer skill set.

Given the mess that the backend of the bullpen has been, that could lead to Tonkin getting an opportunity to claim the role as his own.  He has a 10.51 K/9 this season, courtesy of an 11.1% SwStr%.  He posted a 9.3 K/9 in the minors (9.7 at Triple-A), so it’s easy to imagine the number continuing.  He also has solid control (2.2 BB/9 over his minor league career), making him an ideal fit at the back end of the bullpen.  At 26-years old he could entrench himself as the long-term solution.

3) Luke Gregerson – Houston Astros (3)
Current Closer – Will Harris

The numbers from Gregerson since being removed from the closer’s role have been highly impressive.  Over his past seven appearances (6.2 IP) he’s allowed 0 ER on 1 H and 1 BB, striking out 11.  That’s closer stuff, and while Harris has done the job overall he’s shown a few cracks of late (1 R on 5 H in 2.0 IP in his past two outings).  While it’s hard to say that Harris’ job is in jeopardy, considering a 0.80 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, he’s also benefited from a .241 BABIP and 88.9% strand rate.  Reliever or not, there’s a good chance that a stumble comes.

Will that lead to Gregerson returning to the role?  It’s possible, though it’s also easy to say that Harris’ makeup is better suited for ninth inning duties (8.82 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, 62.8% groundball rate).  At the very least, Gregerson’s performance has put him back on the map.

4) Cory Gearrin – San Francisco Giants (NR)
Current Closer – Santiago Casilla

We may want to believe that Hunter Strickland is the next up, but that’s simply not the case.  While Sergio Romo could slide back into that role, he’s still on the DL and it appears that Gearrin would take over should Casilla need to be removed.  While it’s unlikely that may happen, he has hardly been lights out and belongs to be on watch lists.

Gearrin meanwhile has shown control (2.16 BB/9) and groundballs (58.5%).  While the strikeouts haven’t been there (7.02 K/9), a 9.7% SwStr% and 10.1 K/9 in the minors shows us that there’s significantly more upside in the category.  As it is he has 12 K in 11.0 IP in June (21 K in 23 IP over the past two months), showing that he can bring the entire package to the table.

Maybe Gearrin does stay next up, even once Romo is healthy, and is hardly someone to ignore.

5) Sean Doolittle – Oakland A’s (2)
Current Closer – Ryan Madson

Doolittle has gotten a few opportunities, based on matchups, but there’s a lot of trade talk coming out of Oakland.  Will Doolittle himself be moved?  Will Madson be traded?  Could both actually be dealt?  Time will tell, but Doolittle is starting to look like the pitcher he was prior to the injury, with a 10.27 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9, and has certainly proven capable of thriving in the closers role.

Dropped Off Rankings – Fernando Abad (MIN), Will Smith (MIL)

Injuries to Watch:

• Jake McGee – Colorado Rockies – It’s no guarantee that he overtakes Carlos Estevez upon his return, but the fill-in closer has stumbled a bit of late and that has opened the door.  If someone in your league lost hope, stash McGee now and see how it plays out.
• Jonathan Papelbon – Washington Nationals – He’s started his rehab and we know he’s going to return to the role once he returns.  The time of getting saves from Shawn Kelley is going to soon come to an end.

Others We’re Watching:

• Joaquin Benoit (Seattle Mariners)
• Ryan Buchter (San Diego Padres)
• Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
• Daniel Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks)
• Jason Motte (Colorado Rockies)
• Hector Neris (Philadelphia Phillies)
• David Phelps (Miami Marlins)
• Will Smith (Milwaukee Brewers)

Source – Fangraphs

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