Breakout or Bust: Why Donte Moncrief Is A Must Target In The Middle Rounds

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Colts’ Donte Moncrief saw a significant jump in production from his rookie to his sophomore seasons:

• 2014 – 32 catches (49 targets) for 444 yards & 3 TD
• 2015 – 64 catches (105 targets) for 733 yards & 6 TD

Obviously he’s not going to nearly double the production once again (especially the targets), but could he be in line for another significant leap forward?  The injuries to Andrew Luck devastated the Colts offense, but look at the start the duo got off to in 2015:

• September 13 – 6 catches for 46 yards and 1 TD
• September 21 – 7 catches for 122 yards and 1 TD
• September 27 – 4 catches for 31 yards and 1 TD

That’s 17 catches for 199 yards over three games.  You prorate that out to a full 16 game season and you get 91 catches and 1,061 yards (obviously we aren’t going to think he’s going to score a TD a game).  

Those numbers came despite Andre Johnson being on the roster, something he’s not going to have to cope with in 2016.  Instead Moncrief appears primed to open the season as the team’s second wide receiver, starting across from big play threat T.Y. Hilton.  Throw in the offseason departure of Coby Fleener as well and there suddenly looks to be a significant number of opportunities for the taking (Johnson and Fleener combined for 162 targets, placing them third and fourth on the team).

It all comes together to form a tremendous package for Moncrief:

• Starting role
• More target opportunities
• Better quarterback play

Considering the numbers he posted last season, the chances of him producing like a WR2 in ’16 seems awfully high.  Considering his average ADP of 77.2 (the 33rd wide receiver coming off the board), he’s an easy target in the middle-to-late rounds.  Would 80+ catches and 8+ TD be unreasonable expectations?  It shouldn’t be, and he could in fact outperform them.

Sources – ESPN, Fantasy Pros