Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Are The Hot Stretches Of Eddie Rosario Or Paulo Orlando For Real?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s easy to get excited about a player off of a few strong weeks, but obviously that’s not generally a prudent decision.  There’s a reason we caution against small sample sizes, as things may look shiny but the underlying numbers tell a dramatically different tale.  With that in mind let’s take a look at a few player who have been hot since the All-Star Break and try to determine if they are worth buying into or not:

Eddie Rosario – Minnesota Twins
.356, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 15 R, 1 SB

It’s been an impressive second half for Rosario, who has long been considered a high upside youngster.  That said, we need to be somewhat pessimistic in regards to how “real” the breakout is.  Obviously there’s been significant luck (.442 BABIP, even with a 23.6% line drive rate), but it’s a small sample size so we aren’t going to use that as the reason to ignore him.

That said his plate discipline remains relatively poor:

• Strikeout Rate – 23.1%
• Walk Rate – 3.8%

Those numbers alone would be highly concerning, but considering the underlying metrics they become that much more troubling:

• SwStr% – 15.7% (13th highest in the league)
• O-Swing% – 43.1% (9th highest in the league)

Considering a lot of his value has come courtesy of his elevated average, the luck and plate discipline screams of it being nothing more than an aberration.

Verdict – Not Buying

Paulo Orlando – Kansas City Royals
.377, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 10 R, 4 SB

Orlando continues to struggle drawing walks (2.5% in the second half), as he continues to chase far too many pitches outside the strike zone (37.7%).  That type of propensity makes it hard to imagine him posting an elevated OBP, so while he hit atop the Royals’ lineup last night it’s a hard sell that he has the upside to stay there.

Like with Rosario, he also has benefited from a lot of luck (.429 BABIP).  It’s a small sample size and he does have speed, but that’s simply not a number that he’s going to be able to replicate.

He’s not a power hitter, as evidenced by his 53.1% groundball rate (52.2% in the first half), so if he is going to struggle getting on base is going to really limit his value.  As the old adage goes, you can’t steal first base.  If he’s not going to walk and his average is going to plummet, what’s the point in investing?

Verdict – Not Buying

Source – Fangraphs