Two-Start Pitchers 2016: September 12-18: Are There Any Gambles Worth Taking?

by Ray Kuhn

Don’t do it. Your fantasy baseball season likely started some time in January or early February, so you’ve put in a significant amount of time and energy. Just because football season has officially started, that is not an excuse to take your foot off the gas now. If you are still in the race for a finish in the money, this is when you need to pay the most attention. Things become especially harder this time of year as rosters expand and teams tend to forgo the use of the Disabled List. There are a lot of young names on the below list of pitchers who either began the season, or spent a lot of time in the minor leagues and there most certainly is risk. Let’s take a look at how this week’s options stack up:

Tier One:

1. David Price – Boston Red Sox – vs. Baltimore; vs. New York Yankees
2. Carlos Carrasco – Cleveland Indians – at Chicago White Sox; vs. Detroit
3. Kyle Hendricks – Chicago Cubs – at St. Louis; vs Milwaukee

Tier Two:

1. Drew Pomeranz – Boston Red Sox – vs. Baltimore; vs. New York Yankees
2. Anthony DeSclafani – Cincinnati Reds – vs. Milwaukee; vs. Pittsburgh
3. Jeff Samardzjia – San Francisco Giants – vs. San Diego; vs. St. Louis
4. Gerrit Cole – Pittsburgh Pirates – at Philadelphia; at Cincinnati
5. Ivan Nova – Pittsburgh Pirates – at Philadelphia; at Cincinnati

Tier Three:

1. Danny Duffy – Kansas City Royals – vs. Oakland; vs. Chicago White Sox
2. Trevor Bauer – Cleveland Indians – at Chicago White Sox; vs. Detroit
3. Jose Quintana – Chicago White Sox – vs. Cleveland; at Kansas City
4. Marcus Stroman – Toronto Blue Jays – vs. Tampa Bay; at LA Angels
5. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees – vs. LA Dodgers; at Boston
6. Ervin Santana – Minnesota Twins – at Detroit; at New York Mets
7. Robbie Ray – Arizona Diamondbacks – vs. Colorado; vs. LA Dodgers

Tier Four:

1. Julio Urias – LA Dodgers – at New York Yankees; at Arizona
2. Jamie Garcia – St. Louis Cardinals – vs. Chicago Cubs; at San Francisco
3. R.A. Dickey – Toronto Bue Jays – vs. Tampa Bay; at LA Angels
4. Jake Odorizzi – Tampa Bay Rays – at Toronto; at Baltimore
5. Andrew Cashner – Miami Marlins – at Atlanta; at Philadelphia

Tier Five:

1. Mike Foltynewicz – Atlanta Braves  vs. Miami; vs. Washington
2. Jose De Leon – LA Dodgers – at New York Yankees; at Arizona
3. Jeremy Hellickson – Philadelphia Phillies – vs. Pittsburgh; vs. Miami
4. Mike Leake – St. Louis Cardinals – vs. Chicago Cubs; at San Francisco
5. Dillon Gee – Kansas City Royals – vs. Oakland; vs. Chicago White Sox
6. Dan Straily – Cincinnati Reds – vs. Milwaukee; vs. Pittsburgh
7. Daniel Norris – Detroit Tigers – vs. Minnesota; at Cleveland
8. Jharel Cotton – Oakland A’s – at Kansas City; at Texas
9. Wily Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers – at Cincinnati; at Chicago Cubs
10. Wade Miley – Baltimore Orioles – at Boston; vs. Tampa Bay
11. Miguel Gonzalez – Chicago White Sox – vs. Cleveland; at Kansas City
12. Doug Fister – Houston Astros – vs. Texas; at Seattle
13. Ricky Nolasco – LA Angels – vs. Seattle; vs. Toronto

Tier Six:

1. Alex Asher – Philadelphia Phillies – vs. Pittsburgh; vs. Miami
2. Rafael Montero – New York Mets – at Washington; vs. Minnesota
3. Ariel Miranda – Seattle Mariners – at LA Angels; vs. Houston
4. Steven Brault – Pittsburgh Pirates – at Philadelphia, at Cincinnati
5. Brian Mitchell – New York Yankees – vs. LA Dodgers; at Boston
6. Kyle Gibson – Minnesota Twins – at Detroit; at New York Mets
7. Shelby Miller – Arizona Diamondbacks – vs. Colorado; vs. LA Dodgers
8. Ross Detwiler – Oakland A’s – at Kansas City; at Texas
9. Albert Suarez – San Francisco Giants – vs. San Diego; vs. St. Louis
10. Alex Meyer – LA Angels – vs. Seattle; vs. Toronto

Notes:

• Due to injury Anthony DeSclafani’s season got off to a late start. By the time he made his debut on June 10th, they playoffs were already off the table for this season. The right-hander has done a good job of not being impacted by his team’s struggles, and takes a 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP into this week. It speaks both to DeSclafani’s success and this week’s slate of pitchers that he is one of the top options taking the mound twice. Despite his overall success, DesClafani recently came out of a rough stretch; from July 1st through August 22nd he saw his ERA rise from 1.98 to 3.20 and his July ERA was 3.82. He then followed that up with a complete game shutout of Arizona before allowing four runs over 13 innings in his next two starts. He has 7.88 strikeouts per nine innings against just 1.84 walks, and at least you can expect two quality starts this week.
• Ray Searage and Pittsburgh is working its magic once again. A few adjustments for Ivan Nova since his trade to Pittsburgh have worked wonders for the right-hander and he looks like a totally different pitcher. Nova is maximizing his stuff and using it more efficiently (mainly working inside more to right-handers), and with a slight mechanical adjustment to his head during his motion, things are looking up. Nova has made seven starts with the Pirates, and in two of those he has picked up complete game victories. Overall in his time in Pittsburgh he has averaged just under seven innings per start while compiling a 2.53 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. What might be even more impressive is that he has just two walks against 32 strikeouts. This week he gets to face two teams who are merely playing out the string in Philadelphia and Cincinnati, although both on the road, and more success appears to be in order.
• Alright, maybe I will break down and begin to get behind Robbie Ray. Although, that might backfire and he could struggle this week since I am highlighting him. The more likely case, though, is that it will just end up that I am late to the party. I still have some doubts though, and it’s not entirely that Ray’s ERA over his last three starts is 5.87 and for the season it is 4.46. In his last three starts he has one quality start, and missed another one by just an inning. The other start, in which he got into trouble (five runs in 4.1 innings) came in Coors Field, so Ray does deserve a little break. What I don’t like is that he walked 10 batters in his last three starts, has a 1.44 WHIP on the season and has walked 3.48 batters per nine innings. Of course how can you not like his strikeout totals, as they are a difference maker; 195 in 155.1 innings. Then we get to Ray’s BABIP (.354) and FIP (3.50). He also has an xFIP of 3.34 and you have to like what you are seeing about the southpaw. This wee, Ray gets the Rockies and the Dodgers at home. While he has struggled there this season, 5.03 ERA, the upside is too good not to start him.
• While Julio Urias, among others, gets the attention and buzz in the Dodgers’ rotation, don’t look past Jose De Leon. De Leon battled some injuries this season in Triple-A, and he has just one major league start under his belt. The right-hander made his debut last week against the Padres and he picked up a victory with a quality start; six innings with three earned runs. De Leon struck out nine batters while allowing five hits and not walking anyone. In 16 starts this season in Triple-A he was 7-1 with 11.57 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.61 ERA. Both of De Leon’s starts come on the road, against the Yankees and Diamondbacks, and while the match-ups aren’t easy there certainly is talent and upside.
• Is Jharel Cotton worth a look? While the easy answer is that everyone is at least worth a look should you trust the rookie, who as of Saturday night was owned in just 14% of CBS leagues? Cotton made his debut last week against the Angels at home (against a lineup that didn’t include Mike Trout or Albert Pujols), and he picked up the victory with 6.1 innings of one run ball. The right-hander allowed just two hits and two walks while striking out three. After putting up a 4.90 ERA in 22 games with the Dodgers’ Triple-A squad (16 starts) his ERA in six starts with Oakland’s affiliate was 2.82. There is strikeout upside, 155 in 135.2 minor league innings, and he has shown in the minor leagues that there is some upside. He travels to Kansas City and Texas and I would tread carefully depending on your alternatives and what your team is looking for in the standings.