Breakout or Bust: Will Yoan Moncada Live Up To The Hype In 2017?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Chicago White Sox received a haul in exchange for Chris Sale, something that shouldn’t come as a big surprise.  Three of the four prospects rank in the team’s Top 10 (you can view our entire Top 10 list by clicking here), but the big “get” is likely Yoan Moncada.  There’s obviously immense talent, though his miserable MLB debut has got to give some reason for concern.  The important numbers to know:

• 19 AB (20 PA)
• .211 AVG
• 60.0% strikeout rate
• 17.2% SwStr%

Obviously it’s a miniscule sample size and nothing that we are going to draw any conclusions from.  At the same time he had posted a 21.1% strikeout rate at High-A (284 PA) and 30.9% at Double-A (207 PA) so it also isn’t something that we want to completely ignore.

Baseball America, in describing Moncada, made the following statement:

“Moncada brings a tantalizing blend of physicality, power, speed and athleticism as a switch-hitter with defensive versatility, making him one of the most dynamic prospects in the game. He projects as a plus offensive force, a plus defender at either second base or third base, and a plus runner capable of wreaking havoc on the basepaths. The one big area of his game that needs improvement is his plate discipline, which was exposed after he struck out 12 times in 20 plate appearances with the Red Sox. Despite that poor showing, he demonstrated patience throughout the minors and has shown a propensity for making quick adjustments before.”

Obviously the White Sox are banking on the 21-year olds ability to adjust, and it is quite likely that he is able to get the mark in check.  As they noted it certainly isn’t his eye that is an issue, with walk rates of 15.8% at High-A and 13.0% at Double-A in ’16, and he also wasn’t chasing pitches in his brief time in the Majors (17.7% O-Swing%).  This is certainly a case where you don’t want to make a knee jerk reaction.

The other tools are apparent and impressive, as he hit 15 HR (as well as 31 doubles and 6 triples) with 45 SB in the minor leagues.  All he needs to do is get the strikeouts down slightly, and he’s an All-Star in the making.

In regards to his arrival time and where he fits for Chicago, General Manager Rick Hahn was quoted by Sam Dykstra of MILB.com (click here for the article) as saying:

“There’s still some development left in Yoan, obviously. He’s extremely young,” Hahn said. “He’s had some success at the higher levels, but he’s not a finished product. In terms of his time arriving, he’s a little bit away from forcing the issue, but at this point, we project him in all probability to start in the Minors. Second base, third base, we think he’s capable of playing both, but at this point, we have him playing second base for us.”

Keep in mind that he may open ’17 in the minors, but there’s little doubt that he will make an impact before long.

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com, Baseball America

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Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings: