Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Will Homer Bailey Return to Fantasy Relevance In 2017?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There was a time that Homer Bailey was viewed as a Top30ish fantasy starting pitcher.  Back in 2013 he posted a very impressive line, featuring an 8.57 K/9, 2.33 BB/9 and 46.1% groundball rate.  Since then things haven’t gone according to plan, including being limited to 34.0 innings in the Majors over the past two seasons.  Those questions, though, could lead to a buying opportunity for fantasy owners.

Obviously it wasn’t a big sample size, but the ability he showed to generate swings and misses with three different pitches is promising in regards to his strikeout rate (Whiff%):

• Slider – 12.61%
• Curbeball – 15.00%
• Split-Finger – 10.17%

The split-finger was once his put away pitch (20.49% Whiff% back in ’13), and will be one of the keys to his success.  As it is opponents hit just .200 against the pitch last season, showing that the potential is still there.  If he fully gets the feel back for the pitch, he could produce 8+ K per nine innings.

Another question is going to be fully rediscovering his control.  After missing so much time it’s not surprising to see him struggle in that regard initially, though his 2.7 BB/9 in his 23.0 Major League innings is certainly promising.  The owner of a career 2.9 BB/9, that doesn’t appear to be a significant concern either.

So, thus far we have solid control paired with the potential for strikeouts…  Things don’t look half bad!

He’s never been a serious groundball pitcher (44.7%), though he did own a 50.6% mark in 145.2 IP before injuries struck in 2014.  The cause in the jump was likely due to an increased usage in his slider (15.23% in ’13 to 21.84%).  Obviously he didn’t pitch much last season, but with a 24.24% usage he appears to be using the same game plan that he was prior to injury.

Does that mean he’s going to generate a 50+% groundball rate?  No, but that potential is also there, which obviously would help to overcome any concerns we have about his home ballpark.

He’ll turn 31-years old in May, so it also isn’t like he’s this ancient pitcher with little upside.  It’s easy to forget just how good of an option he had developed into, given the two lost seasons.  However that creates an interesting buying opportunity at the tail end of your draft, given his potential to thrive in all three categories we look for.

Given the lack of cost, there’s no reason not to roll the dice.  Is there?

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Reference

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Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings: