Searching For Speed: 7 Late Round Stolen Base Targets (Margot, Dyson & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The thought is that speed is difficult to find on draft day, and you will need to over pay in order to acquire a game changer (i.e. Billy Hamilton or Jonathan Villar).  While that may be true, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t going to be options available late in your draft that can help.  Here are some names that are available after Round 18 of 12-team drafts, yet can certainly chip in (and the potential is there to help buoy your team):

Manuel Margot – San Diego Padres – Outfielder
ADP – 248.23
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 29

Considered one of the top prospects in the game, it’s a little bit surprising that there isn’t more hype surrounding him.  He stole 30 bases at Triple-A last season (32 overall), and had 42 and 39 the previous two years.  As long as he’s healthy (and he has suffered a minor knee injury this spring) the expectation is that he’s going to win the starting centerfield job and hit near the top of the batting order.  For a team that is going to be looking for ways to score, he’s not going to be glued to first base when he gets on.  He owns a minor league career .288 average and .350 OBP, so look for him to get ample opportunities.

For more on Margot, check out our in-depth look at him by clicking here.

Jarrod Dyson – Seattle Mariners – Outfielder
ADP – 236.92
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 29

We all know that he’s a one-trick pony who easily could be utilized as a platoon player (as he has been for much of his career).  However he’s one who can make a significant impact, even with limited opportunities.  Despite not having more than 337 PA the last five seasons he’s swiped at least 26 bases each year, with 30+ in four of five seasons.  Don’t make the mistake of overlooking him if stolen bases are your sole need.

Andrew Toles – Los Angeles Dodgers – Outfielder
ADP – 346.37
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 23

When you think of the Dodgers Toles probably isn’t going to be among the first 15 players that comes to mind, but having stolen as many as 62 bases in a minor league season he has the potential to be a difference maker.  The left-handed hitter should be on the favorable side of a platoon (at Double-A last season he hit .343 against RHP and .188 against LHP), so there should be enough playing time.  If he hits towards the bottom of the order will he have the green light, though?  That’s the question hanging over him, but at the price tag he’s worth the gamble.

Mallex Smith – Tampa Bay Rays – Outfielder
ADP – 349.37
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 24

Will he get an opportunity to play?  That’s the only real question, with Smith likely ticketed to open the year at Triple-A as the team is likely set to deploy a combination of Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson and Colby Rasmus to fill their three outfield spots.  That’s not a group that brings a stellar health record, and you never know if/when the Rays will be able to capitalize on another team’s need and flip an asset for long-term solutions (which is how they acquired Smith this offseason).

Opportunity is the only question when it comes to his speed, considering his stolen base totals from 2013-2015 in the minors:

• 2013 – 64 SB
• 2014 – 88 SB
• 2015 – 57 SB

He hit .238 in the Majors last season (215 PA), which may help to dissuade some.  However he did a good job of putting the ball on the ground (61.0%) and with his speed he should post greater than a .302 BABIP.  He isn’t going to offer much power or RBI, but consider that Jose Peraza currently carries an ADP of 123.41.  If Smith was playing, and sooner or later he will, he would likely be a Top 150 pick.  As a last round flier, he’s a must grab.

Raul Mondesi – Kansas City Royals – Second Baseman
ADP – 388.77
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 21

Mondesi doesn’t necessarily bring the upside potential of some others on this list, but he also is one of the more likely to open the year with a starting job.  He did steal 33 bases last season (24 in the minors and 9 in the Majors) while only being caught twice, which does show that he can make an impact.  The Royals also lack a tremendous leadoff threat, though his minor league career OBP of .297 doesn’t help his cause.  Mondesi has value, but he’s a last resort type option.

Travis Jankowski – San Diego Padres – Outfielder
ADP – 291.85
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 39

Jankowski isn’t guaranteed to open the year with a starting job, though you can argue that he’s a better fit than Alex Dickerson and could form a dynamic 1-2 punch with Manuel Margot at the top of the lineup.  His strikeout rate from last season may turn some off (26.1%), but his underlying numbers support a significantly better mark.  He also hit the ball hard (26.0%) and there’s no questioning his speed (71 SB in ’13).  It’s not unthinkable that he breaks camp in the Majors and if he does he could make an instant impact.

For our in-depth look at Jankowski, click here.

Roman Quinn – Philadelphia Phillies
ADP – 406.80
Rotoprofessor’s SB Projection – 29

If the team hadn’t signed Michael Saunders, Quinn’s outlook would look significantly different (despite the consistent health concerns).  It’s highly likely that Saunders flounders, though, and when he does the opportunity for Quinn will be there.  He’s a player who brings 10/30 upside, once his opportunity comes.

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com, STATS

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