The Trade Counsel – How April Stats Influence Our Rankings (Souza, Heyward & More)

by Simon Jones

I was asked a few days back, at what point do I start changing my rankings around once the season begins? It’s an interesting question and highlights one of the most contentious areas of rankings throughout the season, as individual owners have very different approaches.

When we sit down and do our preseason draft preparation, we are all looking at the same data set based off the prior year. Our preferences and prejudices might sway our rankings somewhat, but there is a general pattern to most rankings. Similarly, once we get into July and beyond pretty much all our rankings will largely be based around the current season. Last year’s numbers might influence us a little, but the 3+ months we’ve seen will form the basis of our valuations.

Right now we are in that strange grey area, where we have nearly four weeks’ worth of data but our opinions are still very much colored by our predraft rankings. It is this part of the season where the opinions of owners diverge the most, and where some of the biggest trade opportunities lie. However, there also are some of the biggest risks. Are you buying into a hot spell that might disappear by mid-May or disregarding a trend that might last all year?

I’ve seen illustrations of both attitudes of manager already in my leagues this year. I’ve seen a deal where one owner had obviously seriously bought into Amir Garrett’s upside. I’ve seen Mitch Haniger and Zack Greinke dealt (which gives pretty clear indications of the feelings of those owners). I also mentioned last week about my acquisitions of a player like Mashiro Tanaka. You can start to see which owners are buying into 2017 stats and bounce backs by the chatter involving players like Yasiel Puig and Jason Heyward.

Personally, I have only just started revising my rankings and valuations. It’s quite easy to discount a player when they get a significant injuries, so players like Madison Bumgarner and Adrian Beltre have dropped significantly. The trick is identifying the difference between temporary blips in form, and strong indicators that could give insight into long term trends. Trust me, I get it wrong on occasion. I probably cost myself the league when I traded away a heavily slumping Joey Votto at the end of May last year – in my defense, I don’t think that even the most avid Votto fan could have seen 190 PAs of 82 wRC+ baseball turn into a rest of season 487 PAs of 187 wRC+. It reminds you that sometimes even two months of abysmal production can turn around.

With that in mind, here are some hot streaks that I’m buying into, or I’m not convinced about yet.

Hot Starts I’m Buying:

Eric Thames – We all knew I had to start here as he’s been the story of 2017 so far. There was a big unknown on how the Korean numbers would translate, but I think we have a much clearer idea now. I took him late in two leagues and now I wouldn’t trade him for anyone outside of the Top 50.

Steven Souza – Just when people were starting to wonder if Souza could become anything more than a Quadruple-A player, some of that untapped talent is starting to translate onto the big league stage. Obviously I don’t buy the .349 AVG and the .455 BABIP, but I’m more convinced by the lower K rate and the increased power. It’s still possible that someone might overpay in some leagues, but I wouldn’t be selling him too cheap either.

David Peralta – 2016 was a lost season for Peralta after his 2015 breakout. It was strange to see him go so far under the radar on draft day, and he always seemed to me to be a decent upside play given that you could draft him in the 250-300 range. I have to say I was a bit concerned when he was sporting a sub .600 OPS after a couple of weeks, but he seems to have found his way at the plate now after six multi-hit games in seven appearances. I think Peralta can still be bought cheap, so he’s a name I’d target.

Flash In The Pan:

Avisail Garcia – It’s hard to believe Garcia is still only 25. It seems like ages ago that he was primed for a breakout, but that’s just never materialized. None of the underlying numbers seem to have changed other than the absurd BABIP, and I’d expect a regression fast.

Travis Shaw – Shaw actually showed some improvement in his underlying numbers, but so much of this is eerily familiar from his early season form last year in Boston that it would take a lot more evidence before I’m buying. Also the 25% HR/FB rate is out of line with anything he’s produced since Double-A.

Jason Heyward – A friend asked me about Heyward yesterday, and I have to admit he’s so far off my radar that I hadn’t spotted his line isn’t atrocious in 2017. That said, he was so bad in 2016 it would take more than a hot week or two before I’d even consider rostering him, much less giving up anything to acquire him.

I’ll continue next week with some cold starts that have got me thinking.

The Trade Counsel is a weekly trade column – please leave feedback or any trade questions below.

Make sure to check out our Preseason 2017 Prospect Rankings: