Two-Start Pitchers 2017: April 24-30: Are There Any Gambles Worth Taking?

by Ray Kuhn

It is is still too early to take unnecessary risks, but there are some values to be had among the two-start pitchers for the coming week. While there are some differences in approach based on league setup (i.e. taking on Clayton Kershaw in a head-to-head league), that doesn’t eliminate the potential value.

Let’s take a look at all of our options this week, and how they rank:

Tier One:

1. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers – at San Francisco; vs. Philadelphia
2. Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays – at Baltimore; at Toronto
3. Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros – at Cleveland; vs. Oakland
4. Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals – at Colorado; vs. New York Mets

Tier Two:

1. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners – at Detroit; at Cleveland
2. Zack Greinke – Arizona Diamondbacks – vs. San Diego; vs. Colorado
3. Julio Teheran – Atlanta Braves – at New York Mets; at Milwaukee

Tier Three:

1. Rick Porcello – Boston Red Sox – vs. New York Yankees; vs. Chicago Cubs
2. Michael Wacha – St. Louis Cardinals – vs. Toronto; vs. Cincinnati
3. Marco Estrada – Toronto Blue Jays – at St. Louis; vs. Tampa Bay

Tier Four:

1. Amir Garrett – Cincinnati Reds – at Milwaukee; at St. Louis
2. Luis Severino – New York Yankees – at Boston; vs. Baltimore
3. Jason Vargas – Kansas City Royals – at Chicago White Sox; vs. Minnesota
4. Francisco Liriano – Toronto Blue Jays – at Los Angeles Angels; vs. Tampa Bay
5. Vince Velasquez – Philadelphia Phillies – vs. Miami; at Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Wade Miley – Baltimore Orioles – vs. Tampa Bay; at New York Yankees

Tier Five:

1. Joe Ross – Washington Nationals – at Colorado; vs. New York Mets
2. Patrick Corbin – Arizona Diamondbacks – vs. San Diego; vs. Coloardo
3. Robert Gsellman – New York Mets – vs. Atlanta; at Washington
4. Wei-Yin Chen – Miami Marlins – at Philadelphia; vs. Pittsburgh
5. Chad Kuhl – Pittsburgh Pirates – vs. Chicago Cubs; at Miami
6. Martin Perez – Texas Rangers – vs Minnesota; vs. Los Angeles Angels
7. Miguel Gonzalez – Chicago White Sox – vs. Kansas City; at Detroit
8. Matt Shoemaker – Los Angeles Angels – vs. Oakland; at Texas
9. Ty Blach – San Francisco Giants – vs. Los Angeles Dodgers; vs. San Diego

Tier Six:

1. Phil Hughes – Minnesota Twins – at Texas; at Kansas City
2. Brett Anderson – Chicago Cubs – at Pittsburgh; at Boston
3. Jordan Zimmermann – Detroit Tigers – vs. Seattle; vs. Chicago White Sox
4. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Los Angeles Dodgers – at San Francisco; vs. Philadelphia
5. Jesse Hahn – Oakland A’s – at Los Angeles Angels; at Houston
6. Ricky Nolasco – Los Angeles Angels – vs. Toronto; at Texas
7. Jhoulys Chacin – San Diego Padres – at Arizona; at San Francisco
8. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants – vs. Los Angeles Dodgers; vs. San Diego
9. Ubaldo Jimenez – Baltimore Orioles – vs. Tampa Bay; at New York Yankees
10. Josh Tomlin – Cleveland Indians – vs. Houston; vs. Seattle
11. Clayton Richard – San Diego Padres – at Arizona; at San Francisco
12. Tyler Anderson – Colorado Rockies – vs. Washington; at Arizona
13. Matt Garza – Milwaukee Brewers – vs. Cincinnati; vs. Atlanta

Notes:

• They aren’t going to begin using of a humidor in Arizona until May, so it is too soon for Zack Greinke to see the benefits of that decision. Last season wasn’t the best of starts for the right-hander with his new team, but his ERA at home was close to full run higher than on the road. So far things have gone better for Greinke in his first four starts of the season, as he has allowed three runs in 11.2 innings at home as compared to six runs in 13 innings on the road. In his last start the right-hander limited San Diego to just an Erick Aybar solo home run in eight innings of work while picking up the hard luck loss. The positive thing for Greinke owners is that it came after he allowed five runs in just five innings of work in Los Angeles. This week he gets those same, weak hitting Padres (this time at home) and then faces the Rockies at home. He is far from the ace he was two years ago, allowing 24 hits and six walks in 24.2 innings, but he is also a better pitcher than he was last season.
• Through three starts Michael Wacha looks like a vastly different pitcher than we saw in 2016. For starters he is healthier than he was last season when he put up a 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 27 games, 24 starts. This season he has pitched a minimum of six innings in each of his three starts and has a 2.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 18.2 innings. He is just shy of a strikeout an inning, 17, and the 25 year old looks to be finding his groove. He makes both of his starts at home and is the beneficiary of two favorable match-ups. There is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to take advantage of a weakened Toronto team and light hitting Cincinnati lineup.
• As he enters his third season the Nationals started Joe Ross off slowly. He looks to build on his first two seasons in which he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (16 games, 13 starts) in 2015 before putting up a 3.43 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 19 starts last season. The right-hander made his season debut last week against the Braves and wasted no time rewarding owners who had left him stashed on their bench as he allowed 3 R in 7.0 innings of work on 6 H and 1 BB while striking out 7. In weekly leagues I would exercise caution as he starts the week off in Coors Field, but things should get better for him as he ends the week facing the Mets at home.
• It is only three starts in 2017 compared to 30 starts last year, but things are going in two vastly different directions for Wade Miley. In 19 innings, Miley has a 1.90 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.84 while last season his ERA was 5.37 with a WHIP of 1.42. He has 24 strikeouts in 19 innings while allowing just 8 H. However, Miley has also walked 8 batters and has been the beneficiary of some luck this season. The southpaw has a .162 BABIP to go along with a strand rate of 91.6% (normal is around 75%) after a strand rate of 68.6% last season. At some point he will likely regress, and the sample size is small, but there is also something to his success. Currently heis owned in 34% of CBS leagues, and while treading carefully it is a streak worth riding. This week Miley gets Tampa Bay at home and the Yankees on the road, so neither match-up is too daunting.
• Going even further down the ownership levels, Ty Blach is just 6% owned. He is the beneficiary of Madison Bumgarner’s dirt bank accident, but he is far from similar to the Giants’ ace. Blach gets to make both of his starts at home while facing the Dodgers and every one’s favorite punching bag, San Diego. While he isn’t going to be an asset in the strikeout department, just 6.25 K/9 last season in Triple-A, Blach is a dependable starter (3.43 ERA in 162.2 innings). He is certainly worth an investment as a streaming option, and this week is the perfect opportunity for that.

Make sure to check out our Preseason 2017 Prospect Rankings: