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Two-Start Pitchers 2017: May 1-7: Are There Any Gambles Worth Taking?

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by Ray Kuhn 

With the calendar turning to May this week your league standings are beginning to take shape. It’s time to truly evaluate where your team is and what you can do to gain the most points. If strikeouts or wins are what ails you, then taking a look at pitchers who are taking the mound twice could be a good place to start. Also, depending on the pitcher it may be a move that benefits for more than just this week.  With that in mind let’s take a look at how your options rank for this week:

Tier One:

  1. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers – vs. San Francisco; at San Diego
  2. Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox – vs. Baltimore; at Minnesota
  3. Corey Kluber – Cleveland Indians – at Detroit; at Kansas City
  4. Jon Lester – Chicago Cubs – vs. Philadelphia; vs. New York Yankees

Tier Two:

  1. Gerrit Cole – Pittsburgh Pirates – at Cincinnati Reds; vs. Milwaukee
  2. James Paxton – Seattle Mariners – vs. Los Angeles Angels; vs. Texas
  3. Julio Teheran – Atlanta Braves – vs. New York Mets; vs. St. Louis
  4. Ervin Santana – Minnesota Twins – vs. Oakland; vs. Boston
  5. Cole Hamels – Texas Rangers – at Houston; at Seattle
  6. Danny Duffy – Kansas City Royals – vs. Chicago White Sox; vs. Cleveland
  7. Johnny Cueto – San Francisco Giants – at Los Angeles Dodgers; at Cincinnati
  8. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers – vs. Cleveland; at Oakland
  9. Rick Porcello – Boston Red Sox – vs. Baltimore; at Minnesota
  10. Carlos Martinez – St. Louis Cardinals – vs. Milwaukee; at Atlanta

Tier Three:

  1. Luis Severino – New York Yankees – vs. Toronto; at Chicago Cubs
  2. Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles – at Boston; vs. Chicago White Sox
  3. Michael Wacha – St. Louis Cardinals – vs. Milwaukee; at Atlanta
  4. Tanner Roark – Washington Nationals – vs. Atlanta; at Philadelphia
  5. Matt Harvey – New York Mets – at Atlanta; vs. Miami
  6. Jose Quintana – Chicago White Sox – at Kansas City; at Baltimore

Tier Four:

  1. Jeremy Hellickson – Philadelphia Phillies – at Chicago Cubs; vs. Washington
  2. Jason Vargas – Kansas City Royals – vs. Chicago White Sox; vs. Cleveland
  3. Lance McCullers – Houston Astros – vs. Texas; at Los Angeles Angels
  4. Matt Shoemaker – Los Angeles Angels – at Seattle; vs. Houston
  5. Vince Velasquez – Philadelphia Phillies – at Chicago Cubs; vs. Washington

Tier Five:

  1. Sean Manaea – Oakland A’s – at Minnesota; vs. Detroit
  2. Wei-Yin Chen – Miami Marlins – vs. Tampa Bay; at New York Mets
  3. Amir Garrett – Cincinnati Reds – vs. Pittsburgh; vs. San Francisco
  4. Daniel Norris – Detroit Tigers – vs. Cleveland; at Oakland
  5. Alex Cobb – Tampa Bay Rays – at Miami; vs. Toronto
  6. Trevor Bauer – Cleveland Indians – at Detroit; at Kansas City
  7. Brett Anderson – Chicago Cubs – vs. Philadelphia; vs. New York Yankees
  8. Trevor Cahill – San Diego Padres – vs. Colorado; vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. R.A. Dickey – Atlanta Braves – at New York Mets; vs. St. Louis
  10. Robert Gsellman – New York Mets – at Atlanta; vs. Miami
  11. Tyler Chatwood – Colorado Rockies – at San Diego; vs. Arizona
  12. Zach Davies – Milwaukee Brewers – at St Louis; at Pittsburgh
  13. Andrew Cashner – Texas Rangers – at Houston; at Seattle
  14. Edinson Volquez – Miami Marlins – vs Tampa Bay; at New York Mets

Tier Six:

  1. Scott Feldman – Cincinnati Reds – vs. Pittsburgh; vs. San Francisco
  2. Mike Fiers – Houston Astros – vs. Texas; at Los Angeles Angels
  3. Erasmo Ramirez – Tampa Bay Rays – at Miami; vs. Toronto
  4. Tyler Glasnow – Pittsburgh Pirates – at Cincinnati; vs. Milwaukee
  5. Wily Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers – at St. Louis; at Pittsburgh
  6. Dylan Covey – Chicago White Sox – at Kansas City; at Baltimore

Notes:

  • Things have not been good for Johnny Cueto to start the season. In fairness he got a late start on spring training, but it is still no excuse. His worst start of the season, six runs in five innings, came in Colorado so while the stats count the same it is still something to take note of. In general Cueto has not been sharp this season as he has allowed 11 runs in his other 25 innings with just 24 strikeouts in 30 innings overall. At the same time all he needs is two dominant starts this week in Los Angeles (against the Dodgers) and Cincinnati, and his 5.10 ERA and 1.40 WHIP will look a lot better. While Cueto’s FIP of 5.11 doesn’t show he has been the victim of bad luck, he does have an xFIP of 4.25 and is a better pitcher than we have seen.
  • As much as we would like to think otherwise, things are not going to stay this good for Dylan Bundy. I mean he was a first round pick in 2011, but it isn’t exactly ground breaking to say anybody, maybe with the exception of Clayton Kershaw, will maintain a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His .264 BABIP, 2.95 FIP and 4.06 xFIP maintain that. However, Bundy is still going to be a fantasy worthy pitcher moving forward this season as his success isn’t completely unexpected. He has benefited from walking just 1.65 batters per nine innings, while striking out 23 in 32.2 innings. The right-hander has a quality start in each of his five outings, and that includes two successful starts against a Red Sox team who he will face again this week. After allowing three runs in 6.1 innings in his first start, Bundy shut Boston out over seven innings the next time he faced them. He also gets a weak hitting White Sox team at home, so while he might be a sell high candidate whose value is close to peaking, he very much deserves a spot in starting lineup this week (and likely for the rest of the season).
  • Don’t judge Matt Harvey at face value. The Mets haven’t exactly made things easy for the right-hander despite the fact that he is facing an arduous task to begin with in returning from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. For the second straight start he has found out at the last minute, in the case of Thursday it was only three hours, that his services were needed a day prior to previously scheduled. While he was not on short rest, his preparation was still impacted and his performance suffered (last week due to a heavy workout he had completed the day before taking the mound). If you look at the 5.19 ERA Harvey has in his last three starts, along with nine walks against just eight strikeouts, you aren’t going to have a good feeling about the right-hander. He should be given credit for battling through a less than ideal situation. In fact, he got through seven innings against the Nationals while allowing just three runs the first time he was pressed into early service. Overall he has a 4.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and I would feel confident going with the right-hander this week.
  • One pitcher who had done well to alleviate any possible concerns is Gerrit Cole. Over his last three starts Cole has a 1.89 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks in 19 innings. After allowing five runs in his season debut hehas four consecutive quality starts which has brought his ERA down 3.60 as it keeps on falling. With a 3.55 xFIP, Cole’s statistics appear to be right in line with where they should be. More importantly, per Fangraphs, his average fastball velocity of 96.3 is currently the highest it has been in his career.
  • While he isn’t going to excite anyone, Trevor Cahill actually hasn’t been all that bad so far this season. In four starts he has a 4.50 ERA to go along with a 1.33 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 24 innings. In the one start he has made at home, where both of his starts are coming this week, he allowed just one run on three hits in seven innings of work against the Marlins. His chances of a win aren’t great pitching for San Diego, and he is facing Clayton Kershaw in his second start, but Cahill could be a solid streaming option.
  • After winning 11 games and putting up a 3.97 ERA last season, there was some buzz surrounding Zach Davies as an end game option in drafts this winter. So far he has not rewarded that faith to the tune of a 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. That has dropped his ownership to 30% in CBS leagues and those are the performances that could really sink you in the ratio categories giving you an uphill climb. It bears saying that things really can’t get much worse, but Davies has been the victim of a .386 BABIP, and his 4.14 FIP reflects that. Walks have also been an issue, 4.01 per nine innings, but he has 22 strikeouts in 24 innings. Davies is coming off five shutout innings against the Reds, and his ERA has come down after allowing six runs in 4.1 innings to start the season. Don’t give up on him just yet.

Make sure to check out our Preseason 2017 Prospect Rankings:

Top 50 Prospects 1-50
Catcher 1-10
First Base 1-10
Second Base 1-10
Shortstop 1-10
Third Base 1-10
Outfielders: 1-10 11-20
Right Handed Pitchers: 1-10 11-20
Left Handed Pitchers: 1-10


Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=32824


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