10 Important Stories From 04/30/17 Box Scores: Selling High On Sano, Rendon’s Historic Afternoon & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While he was overshadowed by Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters had a big day of his own as he went 3-4 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R.  Mike Foltynewicz had a strong outing, though his defense sabotaged him (0 an extent, considering he allowed 2 HR), as he allowed 4 R (1 earned) on 4 H and 0 BB, striking out 6, over 6.0 IP.  Andrew Toles helped to pace the Dodgers, going 2-4 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R (his second straight game with a home run), but he’s going to continue to sit against southpaws and that’s going to limit his value.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

1) Anthony Rendon enjoys a historic day…
There were many who had grown frustrated with Rendon, who entered the day hitting .226 with 0 HR and 5 RBI in 95 PA.  However his numbers did a complete 180, as he posted a months worth of numbers in one 9-inning span.  He finished the day going 6-6 with 3 HR, 10 RBI and 5 R, suddenly vaulting him to a .278 average with 3 HR, 15 RBI and 10 R on the season.  He entered with a 12.3% line drive rate, a mark you knew he’d improve upon given his track record (21.2% for his career).  While no one could’ve predicted this type of breakout performance, we all knew he had a breakout in him.  He should continue to be viewed as one of the better 3B options in the league and should be a productive option all season long.

2) A bounce back performance from Jordan Zimmermann, kind of…
Taking on the White Sox he allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 2 BB, striking out 5, over 5.0 IP.  While it was an improvement, considering he allowed 5 ER in each of his past three starts, that’s not saying much given the opponent (and the fact that it was a less than stellar performance anyway).  He entered the day with a poor strikeout rate (4.37 K/9), and while he did generate 14 swinging strikes yesterday we need to see more before we buy in (7.5% SwStr% entering the day).  He also continues to generate next to no groundballs (25.6% entering the day, 3 groundballs vs. 7 fly balls yesterday), and home runs are going to be an issue.  At this point there’s nothing to see here.

3) Justin Bour enjoys a big day…
On another day going 4-5 with 1 HR, 6 RBI and 1 R would garner a lot of attention (and it should).  Bour has disappointed this season and even with the big day has managed to hit just .222, though he does have 4 HR and 15 RBI.  He doesn’t offer much speed, so his 50.0% groundball rate entering the day is going to limit his average upside.  At the same time he should continue to improve on a .208 BABIP and his 14.2% SwStr% is extreme (11.0% for his career).  He entered hitting .177 against RHP, despite hitting .268 a year ago, so look for the improvements to continue.  If you own him, this could be the start of a hot stretch.

4) A pair of home runs from Domingo Santana…
Both came against Mike Foltynewicz as he supplied all of the offense for the Brewers, going 2-3 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R.  He’s still hitting just .197 on the season and with the amount of swing and miss in his game he’s never going to have a stellar average.  At the same time he’s actually improved in that regard (9.6% SwStr% entering the day, compared to a 13.2% career mark) and his .196 BABIP is guaranteed to improve (24.5% line drive rate).  A preseason favorite thanks to his power and the potential to chip in 10ish SB (he already has 3), there is reason for optimism.  This could just be the start.

5) Jordan Montgomery turns in another solid outing…
Taking on the Orioles he allowed 3 ER on 3 H and 4 BB, striking out 7, over 5.0 IP though he settled for a no decision.  For a pitcher who lacks overpowering stuff Montgomery has shown an ability to generate an ample amount of swings and misses, considering his 14.1% SwStr% (and another 16 yesterday).  It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts, as they get a longer look at him and start seeing him multiple times.  There’s also the risk that home runs start to become an issue, considering his 38.3% groundball rate (3 groundballs vs. 5 fly balls yesterday).  Keep those potential issues in mind before becoming infatuated.

6) Another marvelous performance from Dallas Keuchel…
Keuchel continues to look like he did during his Cy Young season, as he allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 9, over 7.2 IP against the A’s to improve to 5-0 with a 1.21 ERA.  You could point towards a “lack” of groundballs yesterday, with 8 vs. 6 fly balls, but he had the strikeout working (19 swinging strikes) and entered the day with a 65.6% groundball rate.  In other words pointing towards that would be looking for a reason to be pessimistic.  Sure there are going to be some bumps along the way (.199 BABIP, 100.0% strand rate entering Sunday), but with the way he’s going he should continue to be a productive option moving forward.  While you can sell high if the return is excessive, he’s hardly a must sell.

7) Miguel Sano caps off April with a bang, creating a selling opportunity…
He went 3-5 with 1 HR, 5 RBI and 1 R yesterday, giving him 2 HR and 9 RBI over the final two days of the month (11-17 with 3 HR, 11 RBI and 4 R over his modest four-game hitting streak).  With 7 HR and 25 RBI, along with a .316 average, it’s easy to get excited.  There is no questioning his power, but can he really maintain his 30.0% HR/FB?  Then we also can’t ignore his 32.6% strikeout rate (and that doesn’t include his 2 K yesterday) and .421 BABIP.  In other words he’s a regression waiting to happen, and when you factor in his name appeal now may be the perfect time to try and sell him off.  His value is never going to be greater, so kick the tires and see what’s out there.

8) Another impressive outing from JC Ramirez…
Taking on the Rangers he allowed 2 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 9, over 5.1 IP to get the W.  He’s now posted three straight starts with at least 7 K, though the career reliever had never shown this much strikeout potential when coming out of the bullpen (6.84 K/9).  He’s been using his slider an extreme amount, at 41.5% entering the day, something that is going to have to be watched very closely.  With opponents hitting .172 against the pitch, as well as his ability to swing and misses with it, it makes sense.  You just have to wonder if his arm will be able to hold up to the stress.  He’s an intriguing name to monitor, but for now there’s little reason to make a move outside of the deepest of formats.

9) Don’t get too excited for Ty Blach…
He went 7.0 shutout innings against the Padres, allowing just 3 H and 2 BB.  It would be easy to get excited, but he managed just 1 K courtesy of 4 swinging strikes.  It also wasn’t like he was a groundball machine, with 9 groundballs vs. 11 fly balls.  Against the Padres you can get away with these types of numbers, but stronger offenses are going to take advantage.  The owner of a minor league career 6.2 K/9, there’s little to get excited about.  Maybe stream him against weaker offenses, but that’s about it.

10) Nick Pivetta has a solid MLB debut…
Taking on the Dodgers he allowed 2 ER on 9 H and 1 BB, striking out 5, over 5.0 IP.  He showed an ability to generate swings and misses (11) and also induced some groundballs (5 vs. 4 fly balls).  As we have discussed on our Prospect Page (click here to view), Pivetta had taken significant steps forward at Triple-A this season (24 K vs. 2 BB) as he has become more comfortable throwing all of his pitches in any count.  He had gone 10 days in between starts, due to a rain out, so that could’ve factored into the rust as well.  Keep a close eye on him, as he does have potential to entrench himself in the rotation.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, MILB.com

Make sure to check out our Preseason 2017 Prospect Rankings: