10 Important Stories From 05/07/17 Box Scores: Selling Struggling Starters (Shoemaker, Quintana) & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Giancarlo Stanton paced the Marlins’ offense, going 2-5 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R (giving him 3 HR over the past two games).  Jayson Werth helped to carry the Nationals to a victory, going 4-5 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 3 R.  Eric Thames “busted out”, going 3-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R, as he broke a 9 game homerless streak and 4 game RBI-less streak.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

1) Where have the strikeouts gone, Alex Cobb…
It was a solid performance against the Blue Jays, allowing 2 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 3, over 8.0 IP.  While taking the loss is frustrating, the bigger question is what has happened to the strikeout stuff?  He’s now struggled 8 batters over his past three starts (19.0 IP) and struck out 4 or fewer in five of his seven starts.  While we know he does have potential, and he did enter with an 8.1% SwStr%, he managed just 3 swinging strikes yesterday after generating just 6 in his previous start (and 7 in the start before that).  It’s obviously becoming a significant concern, and if he isn’t going to improve in that regard the overall appeal isn’t going to be there.

2) Tommy Pham enjoys a big day at the plate…
Playing left field and hitting eighth he went 4-5 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R and 1 SB.  There is certainly going to be AB available, with the injuries piling, the question is going to be if he can consistently make contact (he entered the day with a 12.1% SwStr% in the Majors over parts of four seasons) though he was showing good plate discipline at Triple-A this season (19.8% strikeout rate, 12.3% walk rate).  He’s shown power and speed coming up through the minors, including 24 HR and 45 SB over 825 AB at Triple-A, and could provide a short-term boost.  Consider him worth adding in all five-outfielder formats.

3) Another subpar showing from Jose Quintana…
Taking on the Orioles he allowed 4 ER on 9 H and 3 BB, striking out 4, over 5.0 IP to take the loss.  He had allowed just 1 ER over his past two starts (14.0 IP), but he still owns a 4.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over seven starts.  His control, which is generally one of his biggest assets, hasn’t been there this season.  He entered the day with a 3.86 BB/9 and has now walked 2 or more batters in all but one of his starts (3 or more in four starts).  Until he’s consistently firing strikes he’s going to be more of a borderline option as opposed to a near ace.

4) Tyler Glasnow is mediocre once again…
While he wasn’t terrible, he also wasn’t good as he allowed 4 R (3 earned) on 6 H and 2 BB, striking out 6, over 6.1 IP en route to a loss against the Brewers.  He’s now allowed 3 ER in five of his six starts, helping him towards a 6.33 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.  There has been a lot of bad luck involved in the numbers, with a .373 BABIP and 60.2% strand rate entering the day, though given his control issues (which was also an issue coming up through the minors) that’s not enough of an excuse.  Obviously he has the upside and pedigree, but he needs to translate that into actual on field success.  He’s worth holding onto to see if he can figure it out, but until he does he’s more of a player to stash.

5) Sandy Leon steals the show for the Red Sox…
He was hardly the only offensive start, as the team racked up 17 R on 15 H against the Twins with five players posting 2+ RBI.  Leon was the biggest star, though, going 2-4 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R.  A much hyped catcher heading into the season, he’s still hitting just .246 but with 4 HR and 11 RBI.  He’s going to continue sharing playing time, but he’s making regular contact (7.2% SwStr%) and hitting the ball relatively hard (20.8% line drive rate).  He should be able to add some power while improving his average (.250 BABIP), so don’t write him off.

6) Mike Clevinger returns with a bang…
The performance did come against the Royals, but he still tossed 5.2 shutout innings while allowing 1 H and 4 BB, striking out 5.  Control wasn’t an issue in the minors, with a 3.00 BB/9 prior to his recall and a 3.1 mark over his minor league career.  He showed off the top of potential he has in last year’s playoffs, and also owns a 9.4 K/9 at Triple-A.  Home runs could prove to be an issue, with a 0.86 GO/AO in the minors (0.83 at Triple-A), which is something that needs to be monitored (and makes him more of a streaming option based on matchup/ballpark).  Still the opportunity is going to be there, with Corey Kluber on the DL and others struggling.  In deeper formats he’s well worth the add.

7) Home runs continue to plague Matt Shoemaker…
Taking on the Astros he allowed 5 ER on 5 H and 3 BB, striking out 4, over 6.0 IP.  Two of the hits were home runs, bringing him up to 9 HR over 38.0 IP (and there has only been one start where he hasn’t allowed a home run).  Of course that isn’t the only concern, as he entered the day with an unsustainable 10.1% line drive rate (meaning his .253 BABIP will also rise) and has also struggled with his control (4.22 BB/9).  While there is a lot to like and he brings with him strikeout stuff, the risks may outweigh the potential rewards.

8) The struggles of Daniel Norris continue…
He allowed 5 R (4 earned) on 8 H and 2 BB, striking out 4, over 4.2 IP in a battle of underwhelming performances (Sonny Gray allowed 4 R over 4.2 IP).  Norris now owns a 4.55 ERA and has failed to go 5.0 IP in three of his past four starts (he’s allowed 4 ER in each of those outings).  His control has been abysmal (he entered with a 5.00 BB/9), he’s been hit hard consistently (26.7% line drive rate) and he’s failed to get opponents to chase outside the strike zone (24.6% O-Swing%).  None of those numbers garner much hope for improvement, and there also is the potential for home run issues (0.33 HR/9 entering the day, compared to a 1.30 last season).  While you’d like to think that he’s a buy low candidate, right now he’s a hard sell.

9) Mark Reynolds continues to mash…
He went 2-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 2 R, giving him 11 HR and 27 RBI on the season (and he’s homered in three straight games).  Strikeouts have always been the biggest knock against him, but he entered the day with a more than acceptable 21.7% strikeout rate.  Of course he also was benefitting from a 41.7% HR/FB, something he won’t maintain, but he also should start putting a few more balls in the air to help offset that (28.9% fly ball rate, compared to a 44.2% career mark).  While he may take a seat a little more often with Ian Desmond healthy, there will be enough AB as long as he’s hitting.

10) A dominant performance from Luis Severino…
While he ultimately settled for a no decision, as Jon Lester nearly matched him pitch for pitch (7.0 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 9 K) and Aroldis Chapman ultimately couldn’t hold the lead.  That doesn’t take away from the performance, as Severino went into Wrigley Field and held the Cubs to 1 ER on 4 H and 1 BB, striking out 9, over 7.0 IP.  While he was less than stellar in his previous outing (5 ER over 5.2 IP against the Blue Jays), Severino now owns a 45-to-7 strikeout-to-walk rate and is owning more than enough groundballs (11 groundballs vs. 2 fly balls yesterday, after entering with a 47.6% groundball rate).  His biggest issue has been home runs, with 7 HR allowed, but the other skills are tremendous.  If he can find consistency and keep the ball in the ballpark he’s going to be one of the better starters in the league, so if he’s sitting on your waiver wire for whatever reason buy now and enjoy the ride.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs, MILB.com, Baseball Reference

Make sure to check out all of our updated rankings: