10 Important Stories From 05/09/17 Box Scores: Are There Reasons To Buy Gallo Or Samardzija & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Max Scherzer settled for a tough luck no decision, allowing 2 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 11, over 8.0 IP against the Orioles (the bullpen coughed up the lead in the ninth).  Aaron Altherr continued his impressive run, going 2-5 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 1 R.  Yonder Alonso continued his shocking hot stretch, going 2-4 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

1) What’s wrong with Jake Arrieta…
Granted he was pitching in Coors Field, but he still was tagged for 9 R (5 earned) on 9 H and 3 BB, striking out 3, over 3.2 IP.  It also isn’t a uniquely bad performance, as he owns a 5.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and has allowed 3+ ER in each of his past six starts (4+ ER in three of his past four).  His velocity is down (something we will be discussing in detail tomorrow), but he is still getting swings and misses (11.1% SwStr% entering the day) and he’s not walking the ballpark (44 K vs. 12 BB over 38.2 IP).  The biggest change is in his batted ball profile, most notably his strikeout rate (52.6% to 41.7%, with just 1 groundball vs. 6 fly balls yesterday).  Both issues (velocity and groundballs) need to be monitored closely, as you wonder if the heavy workload over the past two years has taken its toll.  If that’s the case, it could be a long year.

2) Does Joey Gallo deserve playing time…
It’s not that Adrian Beltre is on the verge of returning, but it’s something we need to monitor closely.  Gallo went 2-4 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R yesterday, giving him 11 HR, 24 RBI, 22 R and 4 SB on the season.  It has come with a negative, though, as he’s hitting .205 with nearly half of his hits leaving the ballpark (23 hits).  He’s racked up 51 K in just 112 AB, making him one of the most extreme all or nothing players we’ve seen.  There’s no questioning the power, but between the strikeouts and a 60.3% fly ball rate the potential for a usable average is non-existent.  If the home runs slow down at all, which is quite possible considering the amount of contact he’s making, any value he holds will disappear.  While the Rangers could find playing time for him all season, in part thanks to the struggles of Mike Napoli, the concerns keep it from being a given (thanks to the potential for an ugly slump).

3) Don’t ignore Ben Gamel in Seattle…
It’s easy for Gamel to be lost in the shuffle, but after going 4-5 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 3 R he’s hitting .362 with 2 HR, 11 RBI and 12 R in 47 AB.  He does sit against LHP, which is something to keep in mind, and he’s clearly benefited from some luck (.462 BABIP entering the day).  Still, he’s showing that he can make consistent contact (7.5% SwStr%) and get on base (16.2% walk rate at Triple-A, 14.0% in the Majors).  Couple that with 10/15 upside (he had 6 HR and 19 SB in 483 AB at Triple-A last season) and there is definite value in deeper formats.  He’s not going to be an All-Star, but in weeks where the Mariners face a slew of righties he should hold value.

4) Does Jeff Samardzija deserve our attention…
He did allow 6 ER on 10 H over 7.0 IP against the Mets, but he also had 9 K vs. 0 BB.  That puts him at 55 K vs. 10 BB over 46.1 IP on the season, with 20 K over his past two starts.  He’s generating a significant number of swings and misses (11.8% SwStr%, with 15 swinging strikes yesterday) and it’s easy to point towards his 58.1% strand rate entering the game as a reason for his struggles.  That’s part of it, though a 30.3% line drive rate and home run issues (1.36 HR/9, as well as yielding a home run yesterday) don’t help either.  There is reason to buy into him, but fixing those two issues will be the key to any future success.  Don’t make the mistake of simply plugging him into your lineup, as the struggles could easily continue.

5) Keon Broxton leads the Brewers’ offense…
Milwaukee racked up 11 runs on 13 hits against Drew Pomeranz (4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K) and the Red Sox, but it was Broxton who led the charge.  He finished going 3-3 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R and 1 SB, giving him 3 HR and 8 SB on the season.  He continues to hit down in the order, which does limit his ability to score runs (16 R) and his plate discipline is a concern (37 K vs. 8 BB).  We know that was likely going to be an issue, and his 15.8% SwStr% doesn’t help to ease any concerns.  He’s also benefited from a lot of luck (.408 BABIP), so his already lackluster average could easily plummet.  Couple that with hitting towards the bottom of the batting order and would it be surprising to see the stolen bases also disappear?  There’s a lot to like from Broxton, though kicking the tires and cashing in now makes sense.

6) Robbie Ray struggles with his control…
It was a bad night against the Tigers, as he finished allowing 5 ER on 5 H and 5 BB over 5.0 IP.  He did rack up 8 K, giving him 8+ in three straight starts (and five of his past six), but his 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP highlights the concerns we had entering the season.  Obviously his control has been the biggest negative, with a 5.01 BB/9, but home runs have also been a bit of an issue (he allowed one last night) and it’s not that he’s been plagued by poor luck (.308 BABIP, 73.5% strand rate, 22.6% line drive rate).  That’s not to say that the upside isn’t still there, but until he consistently limits the walks he’s going to have some ups and downs.

7) Jharrel Cotton implodes at home…
Pitching in Oakland we wouldn’t expect home runs to be an issue, but he gave up three of them to the Angels en route to allowing 7 R on 8 H and 1 BB, striking out 7, over 5.0 IP.  It’s the third time this season he’s allowed 5+ ER in a start, though the biggest problems have stemmed from poor luck and little else:

• 3% strand rate
• .319 BABIP (despite an 18.4% line drive rate)

We do want to see him limit the long ball (he’s allowed 5 HR over his past two starts) and he could stand to improve his control (3.79 BB/9), but he’s still showing strikeout stuff and he has the potential.  While he should be stashed on your bench, there’s still enough upside to hold onto him.

8) A second straight underwhelming showing for Ivan Nova…
We all knew he wasn’t quite as good as he looked early on, right?  He wasn’t terrible against the Dodgers, but he allowed 2 ER on 7 H and 2 BB, striking out 2, over 6.1 IP.  He managed just 4 swinging strikes, after 9 in his previous outing, and his 7.0% SwStr% helps to explain his overall lackluster strikeout rate (5.40 K/9).  We all know that he’s going to continue to see his walk rate rise (0.56 BB/9) and his groundball rate is down from last season (48.3%).  Throw in the potential regression in luck (.265 BABIP, 77.1% strand rate) and there are ample reasons to sell high.

9) Has Carlos Carrasco emerged as a Top 5 starter…
He was fantastic against the Blue Jays, tossing 7.0 shutout innings allowing just 3 H and 0 BB, striking out 7.  He now owns a 1.86 ERA and 0.77 WHIP on the season, to go along with 46 K vs. 8 BB.  Obviously there are going to be some stumbles (he owns a .211 BABIP and 90.3% strand rate, both of which will regress), as he could also see his walk rate rise (he had a 5 BB game, but has 3 BB spread over his other 6 starts) and his groundball rate is down overall (46.2%).  Of course he owns a career 2.36 BB/9, so he may maintain that, the groundballs are respectable and there’s room for improvement in his strikeout rate (8.57 K/9, 11.6% SwStr%).  Could you sell him if the price is right?  Absolutely, but don’t consider him a must sell.

10) Salvador Perez finally producing like a star…
He went 3-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R yesterday, putting him at .272 with 7 HR and 18 RBI on the season.  There hasn’t been questions about his power in recent seasons, it’s been his average that’s dragged him down.  While it’s been there thus far, his 10.8% SwStr% (yet just a 17.9% strikeout rate) and 52.1% fly ball rate indicate that it will likely plummet once again.  Keep that in mind before labeling him a stud, because the numbers could easily disappear.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

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