Bounce Back or Bust: Can Jonathan Villar Turn His 2017 Around?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Brewers’ Jonathan Villar has become one of the most asked about players in the league in recent days.  Considering the gaudy numbers he put up in ’16 it makes sense, as he’s regressed across the board in ’17 (all numbers are through Tuesday):

At the time we took this look we were just 33 games into the season, but it’s clear that he’s not the same player he was a year ago.  The question is if he can get things on track or is he destined to disappoint?

There is no questioning his speed, as you don’t steal 62 bases by accident, but you need to get on base in order to utilize it.  Right now his OBP skills are in serious question:

Strikeouts – 30.4%
It was an issue last season as well (25.6%), and his SwStr% has taken another step in the wrong direction (10.6% to 13.0%).  He’s particularly struggled against breaking balls (21.80% Whiff%) and offspeed pitches (19.74% Whiff%).  Given those numbers, don’t be surprised to see the amount he sees the pitches continue to increase, and that shouldn’t be a surprise.  Just look at his performance against them thus far (AVG/SLG):

• Changeup – .200/.320
• Slider – .154/.231
• Curveball – .056/.056

BABIP – .267
It’s a significant regression from last year’s mark, though that shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Speed or not, could anyone have anticipated him maintaining a .373 BABIP?  It’s not like he was hitting the ball overly hard, with a 20.3% line drive rate, and that has actually taken a step backward in the early going (18.2%).

In the second half of ’16 he posted a .328 BABIP, and that’s probably a much more believable mark.

Villar has continued to show some power, though we all know that’s not his biggest asset.  His game is based around his speed, and he needs to find a way on base in order to utilize it.  An improvement in his BABIP will help, but strikeouts are going to continue to be a significant concern barring a change in approach.  Until we see it we have to remain skeptical, and that means there’s a good chance he ultimately disappoints in ’17.  That doesn’t eliminate his value, and if you can acquire him on the cheap his SB potential makes him worth it.  Just know what you are buying.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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