Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Does A Velocity Drop Spell Doom? (Arrieta, Bundy & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

While fastball velocity doesn’t mean everything, a significant drop is noteworthy and could be a warning sign of bigger problems to come.  Let’s take a look at a few of the biggest velocity droppers through Monday and determine if we should be concerned or if there is little reason to worry:

Kyle Hendricks – Chicago Cubs
2017 Fastball Velocity – 85.5
2016 Fastball Velocity – 87.8
Drop – 2.3

Hendricks has never been a hard thrower, but this type of velocity is obviously a significant concern.  His effectiveness overall has been down, and you have to wonder if the decrease in velocity has impacted the effectiveness on his changeup.  Just look at the Whiff% on the pitch the past two seasons:

• 2016 – 24.32%
• 2017 – 14.29%

His overall SwStr% is down to 5.9% (10.0% last season) and he’s not getting opponents to chase outside the strike zone (27.7% O-Swing%).  Throw in the potential regression in the luck metrics (.256 BABIP, 83.3% strand rate) and everything is pointing in the wrong direction.

Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles
2017 Fastball Velocity – 91.8
2016 Fastball Velocity – 93.8
Drop – 2.0

On the surface you would think that the ’16 number was a bit deceiving, considering he spent a long time working out of the bullpen, but he averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball in the second half.  Could reincorporating his slider (21.89%, after not throwing it in ’16) be causing the issue?  That’s a stretch, especially since it’s been an effective pitch (.194 BAA).

In fact the only pitch that opponents are doing significant damage against is his fourseam fastball (.312 BAA, .455 SLG).  With that type of “production”, unless the velocity rebounds the concerns are only going to grow.

Danny Duffy – Kansas City Royals
2017 Fastball Velocity – 93.0
2016 Fastball Velocity – 94.8
Drop – 1.8

Like with Bundy, Duffy spent a lot of time in the bullpen in ’16 and that does impact his velocity numbers.  He saw his average fastball drop to 94.1 mph in the second half of ’16, so while there is still a drop it’s not as dramatic of one.  He is actually still getting swings and misses (11.5% SwStr%), so his drop in strikeouts early on (5.98 K/9) is a bit deceiving.  He’s getting swings and misses on both his changeup (16.35% Whiff%) and slider (17.44%), and an overall improvement should come.

There is a little bit of risk, considering his 0.41 HR/9, but an increase in strikeouts should help to offset that.  He’s not going to be a buy low candidate (3.50 ERA), but he also isn’t a sell candidate either.  Stay the course.

Jake Arrieta – Chicago Cubs
2017 Fastball Velocity – 92.0
2016 Fastball Velocity – 93.7
Drop – 1.7

Despite the dip in velocity his strikeout rate is up significantly, to a 10.24 K/9.  It’s a surprising mark, especially as he continues to primarily throw a sinker (51.16%).  That fact helps lead us to believe that his home runs struggles (1.40 HR/9) should disappear, but can he maintain his current strikeout pace?

That seems unlikely, and that should help lead to a regression in his walk rate.  Considering that he already owns a 5.35 ERA, that wouldn’t make him seem too promising.  A decline in his strikeouts and a regression in his walks isn’t a formula for success.  If you can buy him low enough there’s potential value, but don’t go crazy.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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