Buy Low Candidates: Are Kevin Gausman Or Danny Salazar Worth Targeting?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are one month into the season and that means that statistics are starting to stabilize.  When it comes to pitchers we are still dealing with relatively small sample sizes (4-5 starts in most cases), but there’s enough information to start developing opinions.  Today let’s take a look at two preseason darlings who have gotten off to slow starts.  Are they worth buying?  Should we ignore them?  Let’s take a look:

Danny Salazar – Cleveland Indians
2017 Statistics – 4.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 13.03 K/9, 4.34 BB/9

Just looking at the numbers you can see that his control has been a problem, especially after posting a 4.13 BB/9 in ’16.  However he’s the same pitcher who posted BB/9 of 2.86 and 2.58 in the Majors in ’14 and ’15 and also owned a 2.8 BB/9 coming up in the minors.  It’s really hard to believe that he’s truly this bad, despite the issue being prevalent for some time.

The owner of a career best 15.9% SwStr% (12.0% for his career), Salazar is throwing his changeup more than ever (32.7% in ’17 vs. career mark of 19.1%).  Considering the 22.06% Whiff% (24.60% last season) it makes sense and should continue to lead to the gaudy strikeout marks.

Salazar has also suffered from some poor luck (.354 BABIP), though his 25.8% line drive rate supports the elevated mark.  Then again, with a 20.4% career mark (17.1% last season) does anyone really believe it?

It’s not to say that there aren’t concerns, as his groundball rate has plummeted early on (31.8% in ’17 vs. 47.8% last season).  That’s something we need to watch, as it could ultimately lead to home run issues.  It’s not a major concern, as of yet, but something else we’ll need to keep a close eye on.

How low can you buy him, given the strikeout numbers, remains to be seen.  At the same time it’s well worth kicking the tires.  An owner could have grown frustrated given the control issues and poor overall numbers, so it’s worth checking in to see the cost.

Verdict – Buy Low

Kevin Gausman – Baltimore Orioles
2017 Statistics – 7.50 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 6.00 K/9, 5.10 BB/9

Unless word breaks that he’s injured, does anyone really believe in how poor these numbers are?  Everything has gone wrong, from the lack of control to home run issues (1.80 HR/9).  His velocity has actually been up early on (94.7 mph to 95.1), he simply isn’t showing the same pure stuff:

• 9.1% SwStr%
• 27.4% O-Swing%

Among the three pitches that he’s primarily thrown, he’s been hammered against all of them (AVG/SLG):

• Fourseam Fastball – .286/.488
• Slider – .421/.579
• Split-Finger Fastball – .368/.684

He’s only getting swings and misses from his splitter (21.95% Whiff%), and considering he’s not getting to the pitch (14.24% used), and when he does throw it it’s getting hit so it’s fair to wonder if he’s going to be able to figure it out.  We’d like to say that he’s an easy buy low candidate, especially with a .350 BABIP and 67.8% strand rate, but it’s simply not the case.  He’s not getting it done with any pitch, and that makes him a risky investment.  While we would keep him stashed if you own him, there are “safer” buy low candidates to look at.

Verdict – Don’t Buy

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Reference

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