Hold or Fold: Which Of The Strand Rate Leaders Are Sell High Candidates (Keuchel, Leake & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Entering play on Sunday there were six pitchers who owned a strand rate of 85% or better.  Let’s take a look at each of them and try to determine if they are worth holding or if the risk of regression far outweighs any potential reward:

Gio Gonzalez – Washington Nationals
Strand Rate – 90.8%

Gonzalez has always been a pitcher that has taunted us with his talent, but he’s failed to live up to the billing ever since going 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA in 2012.  That’s not to say that he hasn’t been a productive option, routinely posting an ERA of 3.80 or better, but he’s never been able to match the same success.

While he’s showing flashes this season, there has been extreme luck across the board.  It’s not just the strand rate, as he’s also benefited from a .260 BABIP (.296 for his career).  His average fastball velocity is down even further (90.4 mph, after being at or above 92 mph from 2011-2015) and he’s not fooling hitters as much (8.8% SwStr%, 28.3% O-Swing%).

While you want to believe that the strikeouts will rise and the walks will fall, it’s not necessarily the case.  With that in mind, and with the other numbers, he’s an easy pitcher to sell.

Verdict – Sell

Ervin Santana – Minnesota Twins
Strand Rate – 90.7%

As if the strand rate isn’t enough, does anyone believe in his .143 BABIP (.282 for his career)?  While he has limited the line drives, at 14.6%, there’s little reason to believe that he can maintain that mark.  As that regresses the BABIP and strand rate will rise with it, resulting in his ERA quickly ballooning (from his current 2.07 mark).

The owner of a career 4.04 ERA, it’s hard to imagine being able to sell him for very much.  That said there has always been name appeal and he did post a 3.38 ERA a year ago.  That could help you get at least a useful piece in return, and if you can don’t hesitate.

Verdict – Sell

Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros
Strand Rate – 88.2%

The former Cy Young Award winner obviously isn’t quite as good as the numbers indicate, as he owns a 1.84 ERA due to the strand rate and .215 BABIP.  That said he has his SwStr% up (10.5%), which helps gives hope that his strikeout rate will improve.  Couple that with the other skills and he has the makings of one of the truly elite:

• Strikeouts – 7.63 K/9
• Walks – 1.98 BB/9
• Groundballs – 67.1%

Sure there’s a regression coming, but this is a special skill set and one that you want to hold onto.  The fact that he’s now landed on the DL adds an extra twist here, but it’s said to be minor and isn’t of much concern.

Verdict – Hold (unless you are truly overwhelmed)

Ricky Nolasco – Los Angeles Angels
Strand Rate – 87.9%

Despite the strand rate he still owns a 4.01 ERA, as he’s been plagued by home runs (2.26 HR/9).  There’s reason to believe that he’ll improve in the home run department, but a regression in his strand rate will eliminate any benefit from it.  As it is, it’s Ricky Nolasco…  There’s no trade value any way.

Verdict – Cut Bait

Wade Miley – Baltimore Orioles
Strand Rate – 87.7%

If you want to use the strikeout rate as a reason to hold Miley (9.94 K/9), forget it.  His 8.7% SwStr% is along the lines of his career mark (8.6%) and there’s little reason to think that he can maintain it.  Couple that with a 25.0% line drive rate, as well as the drop in strand rate, and he’s a disaster in the making.

Verdict – Cut Bait

Mike Leake – St. Louis Cardinals
Strand Rate – 86.5%

While he brings control (1.69 K/9) and groundballs (53.7%), there’s little strikeout potential (6.24 K/9) and an almost guaranteed regression in his strand rate and BABIP (.244).  He has some name value, and that could make trading him a viable option, but without the strikeouts and the expected regression he’s a streaming starter waiting to happen.

Verdict – Sell

Source – Fangraphs

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