The Ditch List: Is Adam Wainwright Or Charlie Morton Worth Holding Onto?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Do you hold onto the veteran with a proven track record?  How about the player who has had a great start, though the underlying metrics create obvious concerns?  There’s no one answer, so let’s take a look at two starters who have gotten off to different starts and see if they are worth holding onto or not:

Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
It has been a disastrous start to the 2017 campaign, after he took another beating last Thursday at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers.  In his six starts he’s allowed 4+ ER in four of them, only once going more than 5.0 innings (a 6.1 inning performance against the Blue Jays).  That clearly helps to explain his 6.30 ERA.

He’s been hittable, having allowed 49 hits over 30.0 IP.  Just by looking at the luck numbers, with a .446 BABIP and 69.3% strand rate, it’s easy to envision an improvement coming.  However he’s continued to be hit extremely hard, and while we would expect an improvement in his BABIP there’s no guarantee that a dramatic improvement is coming (line drive rates):

• 2012 – 23.0%
• 2013 – 23.4%
• 2014 – 23.9%
• 2015 – 26.2%
• 2016 – 25.5%
• 2017 – 27.5%

Last season he carried a .330 BABIP and 69.5% strand rate, so even an “improvement” won’t bring tremendous numbers with it.  Throw in questionable strikeout potential, with a 7.9% SwStr%, and the time to move on may have finally arrived.

Maybe he “improves”, but it shouldn’t be enough to excite anyone.

Charlie Morton – Houston Astros
While his 3.97 ERA isn’t going to excite you, Morton appears to have reinvented himself over his first six starts of 2017.  He’s throwing the ball harder than ever, as he’s seen his velocity increase on both his fourseam fastball (95.22 to 97.11) and his sinker (95.33 to 96.05).  That’s helped him to see his strikeout rate rise, with a 10.32 K/9, with his curveball suddenly becoming his put away pitch.  Then again, can he continue to generate swings and misses like this (Whiff%):

• 2014 – 15.61%
• 2015 – 18.42%
• 2016 – 12.68%
• 2017 – 22.73%

It’s not like he’s throwing it more than before, so it’s fair to be skeptical.

Morton has also been hit hard (24.5% line drive rate), while he’s seen his groundball rate fall (48.9% as compared to a 55.2% career mark).  That’s going to be the big concern, because that has always been his calling card.  While this year’s number isn’t bad, it also isn’t elite and if his strikeout rate slows down (as we’d expect it to) the decrease in strikeouts will loom large and cause significant concerns in regards to his upside.

Is there a chance that he produces?  Absolutely, and there’s enough of a reason to grab him off the waiver wire and see what happens.  At the same time it’s hardly a given, so don’t make the mistake of becoming infatuated with him.

Sources – Fangraphs, ESPN, Brooks Baseball

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