Waiver Wire Guidelines: Is Joe Ross Finally Prepared To Produce?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Long viewed as a potential Top 30 type starting pitcher, it appeared that fantasy owners’ patience had run out for both the player and the way the Nationals were handling him.  It’s amazing how quickly things can change though, isn’t it?

After a surprise demotion to Triple-A Ross returned to start on Tuesday and twirled an absolute gem:

8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K

He was a groundball machine, generating 12 groundballs vs. 6 fly balls.  Now the question we have to ask ourselves is if he’s ready to maintain this type of production and realize the potential we’ve seen before, or if this was more of a one-off impressive performance.

Before we get too excited, even in this outing he was operating primarily as a two-pitch pitcher:

• Sinker – 50.50%
• Slider – 38.61%
• Changeup – 5.94%
• Fourseam – 4.95%

For a pitcher who throws a sinker as much as he does he generally is not one to generate many groundballs (45.2%).  He also has a history of struggling as he works deeper into the game, and you could argue that it’s partly due to lack of variation in his arsenal.  Just look at the numbers from last year:

• 1st 9 Batters – 2.34 ERA
• 2nd 9 Batters – 4.28 ERA
• 3rd+ 9 Batters – 4.18 ERA

We also have to note that the Nationals awarded Ross a big lead, and he simply had to manage the game.  While it shouldn’t take away from the impressive performance (considering he’s had issues with that in the past), one game doesn’t remove the warts that are involved.

There is definitely upside and he is worth rostering in many formats, but that doesn’t make him a must start.  He’s more of a stash and see before fully trusting him as a part of your weekly lineup.  There’s just too much risk, and one strong performance doesn’t eliminate it.

Waiver Wire Guidelines:

• 10 Team Leagues – Monitor Only (but too shallow)
• 12 Team Leagues – Worthy Add
• 14+ Team Leagues – Must Add
• NL-Only Leagues – Must Add
• Keeper Leagues – Worthy Add (depending on league size)

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, CBS Sports

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