Waiver Wire Guidelines: Is Matt Adams A Must Add?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

After learning of the loss of Freddie Freeman the Braves moved quickly, acquiring Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals to help plug the hole.  Once thought of as one of the potentially premier power prospects in the game, Adams stock has plummeted in recent seasons.  The question is if all he needed was a fresh start, something he’s surely to get now as he should play nearly every day (with one potential exception).

Adams did show a bit more power last season, hitting 16 HR over 297 AB (as well as adding 18 doubles).  His fly ball rate was up, which is definitely notable:

• 2015 – 38.8%
• 2016 – 48.4%
• 2017 – 45.5%

Last season he posted a 15.2% HR/FB, reminiscent of his 2013 mark (21.8%).  This season the power hasn’t been there, with a 6.7% HR/FB, but it’s easy to envision it beginning to manifest itself.  Considering what he did last season, his limited playing time thus far in ’17 (52 AB) helping him struggle to find a groove and the improved home ballpark (SunTrust Park is yielding 2.56 HR/game, compared to 1.96 for Busch Stadium) it’s easy to imagine a quick improvement.

In regards to his struggle in average, no one would complain about a .269 mark from a slugger.  While there has been some luck (.406 BABIP) an increase in power and a decrease in strikeouts will help to offset that.  To date he owns a 35.1% strikeout rate, but it is a small sample and isn’t consistent with what he’s done throughout his career (17.1% SwStr% in ’15, 11.3% for his career).  A .270 career hitter, there’s little to be concerned.

The biggest question is going to be if Adams can figure it out and continue to play when a southpaw is on the mound.  Just look at his career slash:

• RHP – .284/.331/.476
• LHP – .210/.240/.348

That’s obviously a big question mark, but lucky for him the NL East doesn’t feature many imposing southpaws.  Gio Gonzalez and a healthy Steven Matz (which is almost an oxymoron) are the only potential standouts, so it shouldn’t be a big concern.  Considering the power potential, that’s going to make him an intriguing grab in most formats.

Waiver Wire Guidelines:

• 10 Team Leagues – Monitor Only (but too shallow)
• 12 Team Leagues – Worthy Add
• 14+ Team Leagues – Must Add
• NL-Only Leagues – Must Add
• Keeper Leagues – Worthy Add (depending on league size)

Sources – Fangraphs, ESPN

Make sure to check out all of our updated rankings: