Waiver Wire Throwdown: Justin Smoak vs. Justin Bour: Which Is The Better Regression Candidate?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There are two first baseman, who were likely widely available on the waiver wire to open the season, who have been tearing it up over the past two weeks.  Let’s take a look at each player and try to determine which is the better pickup for the remainder of the season.

First the numbers (from earlier this week):

Now let’s take a look at each player individually:

Justin Smoak – Toronto Blue Jays
On the season he’s hitting .278 with 10 HR and 29 RBI.  He’s always shown some power, and while his 23.3% HR/FB is likely inflated (he has just 6 doubles and 1 triple) it’s also not completely unreasonable.  There’s going to continue to be power, but the big development has been in his batting average.

While .278 may not seem to be a tremendous number, remember he’s a career .226 hitter.  He’s dramatically improved his strikeout rate, currently at 19.5%, as he owns an 8.7% SwStr% (10.2% for his career).  It’s been an impressive improvement, most notably against breaking balls (18.67% to 10.66%) and offspeed pitches (15.27% to 8.99%).  His ability to maintain that mark is going to be key to his success, and considering his track record do we really believe?

His production is also skewed in favor of hitting against southpaws, something that hasn’t been the case throughout his career:

• RHP – .243/.300/.468
• LHP – .394/.462/.788

In other words everything points to a regression before long.

Justin Bour – Miami Marlins
Obviously he’s not going to maintain a 31.4% HR/FB, and you can also argue that with the way he’s going he won’t be able to maintain his 22.9% strikeout rate (13.1% SwStr%).  If he is to regress in both of those regards, his .262 average is a certainty to plummet.  He does own a .264 career mark, and maybe he improves upon his 18.5% line drive rate, but at this point it’s a tougher sell.

Of course, prior to the season we did see some promise in him as we said in our draft guide:

“Injuries helped to limit Bour in ’16, though 15 HR in 321 PA gives a sense of hope.  He showed an improved strikeout rate (22.6% to 17.4%) and hit the ball hard (21.7% line drive rate), which gives him even more upside in the average department (he hit .264 last season).  His overall approach was improved (SwStr% went from 11.2% to 9.6%), with the biggest growth coming against breaking balls (Whiff% went from 18.04% to 13.22%).  It gives the hope of an overall productive 1B, assuming the team is willing to use him in a full-time role and not a platoon (30 AB against LHP).  Even if he did platoon he’d be on the favorable side of things, making him an intriguing flier as a high upside gamble.”

His Whiff% has jumped back up against breaking balls (17.73%) and also against offspeed pitches (24.24%).  Considering what he showed a year ago there is the potential for an improvement.  That would help, especially considering his power potential.

Conclusion
Both players seem like a certainty to regress, but Bour’s upside is higher because there’s hope of an improvement in his strikeout rate.  With that in mind, if you do have a choice he’s the one we’d recommend.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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