Sell High Candidate: Could It Actually Make Sense To Trade Cody Bellinger?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Cody Bellinger has certainly burst onto the scene, as he’s on a record setting pace since making his MLB debut (all stats are through Tuesday, June 20):

.270 (53-196), 22 HR, 49 RBI, 40 R, 4 SB

You would think that holding onto him would be a no-brainer, and in keeper leagues that is likely the case.  However kicking the tires and seeing what is available also isn’t the craziest thing as you can argue that his value will never be higher.  That’s not to say that he’s going to completely fall off a cliff, but it would seem likely that he’s going to regress:

Batting Average
Thus far he has looked extremely strikeout prone, with a 29.7% (after posting a 28.6% strikeout rate at Triple-A) courtesy of a 14.2% SwStr%.  He’s had problems with swings and misses against all kinds of pitches:

• Hard – 13.76%
• Breaking – 17.32%
• Offspeed – 20.61%

It should come as no surprise that the number of Hard pitches he’s seen has started to decrease from May to June as well:

Of course his strikeouts have gone down (33.9% to 26.0%), but time will tell if he can maintain that (and we’d be skeptical that he can).

Then you have the fly ball rate, which sits at a gaudy 49.6%.  Considering that number was similar to his Double-A mark in ’16, which was 49.3%, it’s apparent that he’s swinging for the fences.  That approach doesn’t lend itself to a big BABIP, and when coupled with the strikeout rate puts his average in serious question.

Power
No one is going to question his power potential, but is anyone really willing to bet he can maintain a 34.4% HR/FB?  Just consider these two marks from the minors:

• High-A (2015) – 18.8%
• Double-A (2016) – 15.2%

Then you have a home ballpark that generally isn’t favorable for power hitters, yet he owns a 35.5% HR/FB there.  It speaks to a potential regression, and that’s not to say that it’ll completely disappear.  It just means he’s unlikely to maintain this pace.

Preseason Notes
These two points echo what we wrote about Bellinger in the preseason, despite grading him as an A-/B+ prospect.  At the time we said:

Bellinger has evolved into one of the better prospects in the game, showing the potential to hit for power while kicking in at least a few stolen bases (he’s had 8+ every season).  There are at least a few concerns that shouldn’t be overlooked, however.  There’s no questioning the power potential, he had 26 HR last season, but he only added 17 doubles and 1 triple.  With a 0.49 GO/AO while at Double-A, it indicates that he’s swinging for the fences and focusing on hitting for power.  That could lead to a diminished average, despite the improvement he made in his strikeout rate:

• High-A (2015) – 27.6%
• Double-A (2016) – 20.2%

He can draw a walk (12.7%), but if the strikeouts rise again to go along with the inflated fly ball rate…  It could get ugly.  How he performs at Triple-A early in the year will be telling, but there’s a chance that the bubble ultimately bursts.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

Conclusion
We are by no means saying that Bellinger is a must sell, but at the same time now may be the perfect time to see what’s out there.  There will likely be a regression coming, so if you can extract maximum value it makes perfect sense.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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