Quick Hit: Logan Morrison Lands In Minnesota, But That’s Not Necessarily A Good Thing

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The dominoes continue to fall, as Logan Morrison is the latest free agent to finally find a home.  It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Twins were looking for a bat, though you could argue that their bigger need is on the mound, but does he bring the potential to improve the lineup?  At least some of last year’s numbers would give that impression:

512 At Bats
.246 Batting Average (126 Hits)
38 Home Runs
85 RBI
75 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.353 On Base Percentage
.516 Slugging Percentage
.268 Batting Average on Balls in Play

A career .245 hitter, it’s clear that the key number was his home run total having never hit more than 23 HR in a season (and that came in 2011).  There was a clear change in approach, as his fly ball rate spiked significantly:

• 2013 – 32.1%
• 2014 – 36.5%
• 2015 – 39.0%
• 2016 – 34.7%
• 2017 – 46.2%

That was a trend across the game, and Morrison also saw his HR/FB jump significantly (22.5%, compared to a career mark of 14.0%).  Of course he did see a bit of a slow down as the season progressed (24.0% HR/FB in the first half, 20.3% in the second) and if it weren’t for a monster September (35.7%) the disparity would have been even greater (as it is he hit a home run every 15.8 AB, putting him on pace for around 31 HR over a 500 AB season) and there’s room for an even greater regression.

That’s an obvious red flag, and given his history it’s impossible to expect him to come reasonably close to maintaining this type of power.  Being slotted in the middle of the lineup is going to help, at least early on, but if he’s a .250 hitter with 25 HR power is he going to stay there?

In fact there’s even more risk in his average, as his SwStr% has jumped significantly in recent years (12.0% in ’17) and that could lead to even more strikeouts (24.8%).  Things could go south, and do so quickly, so while it isn’t a bad landing spot it’s hard to get overly excited as his outlook simply isn’t very promising.

Source – Fangraphs