Quick Hit: Why The A’s Matt Olson May Not Be Worth The 2018 Investment

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

With playing time seemingly available and having shown ample power in 2017, as he hit 47 HR between Triple-A and the Majors, it’s easy to get excited about the A’s Matt Olson.  That said just looking at those two things and ignoring the other relevant numbers is doing yourself a disservice.  There are significant warning signs up and down his profile which shouldn’t be ignored:

Power
Key Stats

• 2 doubles in Majors
• 41.4% HR/FB

Sure he hit 24 HR in 216 PA in the Majors, but does anyone really be!ove he can maintain that pace?  It’s virtually impossible, given the two numbers above.  At least some of those home runs are going to fall short, whether they turn into doubles or outs.  Either way, it’s impossible to anticipate a similar home run pace.

Average
Key Stats

• 13.4% SwStr%
• .238 BABIP
• 15.9% line drive rate

It’s easy to argue that he will improve upon his BABIP, but his fly ball tendencies don’t make it a guarantee.  Throw in a drop in home runs helping to offset any improvement, as well as the strikeout rate (27.8%) and it’s obvious that he’s never going to be a contributor here.  While he hit .259 in the Majors last season, it’s easy to envision him falling well short of that number.

Platoon
At Triple-A last season Olson showed an obvious split in his production:

• vs. RHP – .293/.392/.603
• vs. LHP – .194/.271/.435

That would put him on the favorable side, but it’s still limited AB and that would mean limited production.

Conclusion
When looking at Olson it’s easy to be intrigued by the power, and even with a regression a 30 HR year is possible.  That said it’s going to come at a cost, as his average is going to be an issue and there will be weeks that he’s completely unusable depending on the schedule.  That’s a tough sell, especially at a deep position where there are similar (or better) risks available.  At this point Olson is a player to pass on draft day.

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com

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