Are We Buying Into Nick Castellanos? You’d Better Believe It…

by Ray Kuhn

It feels like we have been talking about this for years, but the time has come to truly recognize Nick Castellanos. While he may not become a perennial All-Star, we do have a very useful fantasy player on our hands.

Despite being 26-years old it feels like Castellanos has been around for quite some time. He went from being a top prospect, to being a bust, to being a post-hype sleeper and now a borderline Top 100 selection. Currently his ADP is 101 and he is the 10th third baseman, his old position, off the board. As far as outfielders go 25 are being selected before him.

You have to like the flexibility that he offers for this season, and at that draft price he is a solid mid-round option as you build your team. Let’s take a look at why:

Last season, from a performance standpoint, we truly had a validation of what we thought Castellanos’ potential was. Overall he hit .272 with 26 home runs and 101 RBI, but it was really after June 1st that he got going. Over the last four months of the season he hit .303 and went deep 22 times. It was the culmination of a three year stretch that saw his home run total rise from 15 in 2015 and 18 in 2016. The good news is that it appears he is still developing his power.

Even if he doesn’t take another step it’s hard to argue with the current skill set. Not only does he have above average power, but it’s hard contact that truly sets him apart.  Per Baseball HQ’s metric, Castellanos’ Hard Contact Rate was 35% above league average last season. It gets even better as per Bill James he had the highest percentage of hard hit balls per plate appearances last season. TNot only do we clearly like the quality of his contact, but Castellanos is now making contact at a league average rate.

Currently he is at a 14% home run to fly ball rate, and if he improves his launch angle and continues to build on his power there is room for growth. That means we could see even more HR, as it is possible he eclipses 30 in 2018.  With the Tigers’ lineup not as strong as it once was, they will be counting on Castellanos even more (it is also possible it limits his chances at another 100-plus RBI season).

Entering this season Castellanos appears to be in the prime of his career, but if we don’t see anymore substantial growth from him there is still a lot to like. The best part is that all of his underlying skill sets support a repeat of last year, with the potential for more. That is what his ADP is based on, so we have a potential value here.

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