Easter Preview 2018

Before anything else, it won’t have been a surprise to many that Jaap Stam was sacked by Reading earlier this week.

The Royals have taken a huge step backwards this season and although I don’t think they’ll be relegated, a change was absolutely necessary.

Now on to the predictions, such as they are. Having had a quick look at the last five Championship tables after the last games in March, I think it’s pretty safe to say there are only a couple of issues remaining:

Wolves and Cardiff are as good as promoted. The only time in the last five seasons where the top two clubs at the end of March haven’t been promoted was in 2015/16, when Brighton’s terrible form enabled Middlesbrough to overtake them.

As for the playoffs, NO team outside the top four at the end of March has gone on to be promoted after winning at Wembley. Even though any of the eight remaining teams in the top ten could still qualify for the playoffs, Aston Villa and Fulham are six points ahead of Derby and I can’t see any  reason to change my pre-season prediction that Fulham would go up. Villa seem to have a serious case of the wobbles.

At the bottom, in three of the last five seasons all three teams that occupied the red zone at the end of March were relegated. In the remaining two campaigns, two of the three clubs in the bottom three went down: at the end of March 2013, three of the bottom four sides went on to drop out of the Championship. Based on those figures, Sunderland are probably already down and it’s more than likely that whoever is in 22nd place at close of play on the last day of the month will join them. I’d not be surprised if that’s either Birmingham or Burton.

The question is this: are there any games over the Easter period that will make any difference to the scenario I’ve just outlined?

Friday 31st March

Cardiff v Burton (3pm), Middlesbrough v Wolves (5:30pm) and Derby v Sunderland (7:45pm). The latter pair are televised: Middlesbrough v Wolves is the one to watch.

Boro’s resurgence is based on a six game unbeaten streak but they’ve yet to beat any of the teams above them and have scored just four goals in eight games against those opponents. Wolves have only won two of their last six away from Molineux but they’ve been comprehensively beaten at both Aston Villa and Fulham recently and haven’t won at Middlesbrough for over 60 years!

Monday 2nd April

Burton v Middlesbrough (3:00pm)

Tuesday 3rd April

Aston Villa v Reading (7:45pm), Bolton v Birmingham (8pm). Neither of these are televised: Bolton v Birmingham is the one to watch out for.

Next scheduled post will be here on Friday April 6th, I’m off to France for a week.