Pitchers We’re Watching Closely Today (03/31/18): Lucas Giolito, Luis Castillo & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We have a full slate of games on the agenda today, meaning there are going to be several starting pitchers worth paying attention.  Which are the key story lines we’re watching?  Let’s take a look:

Lucas Giolito – Chicago White Sox – at Kansas City
What We’re Watching – Control…  Control…  Control…

After struggling with his control while at Triple-A last season (4.13 BB/9), he posted a 2.38 BB/9 over 7 starts in the Majors.  He also carried that success over to the spring, where he posted 17 K vs. 4 BB over 17.2 IP.  There’s never been a question about his pure stuff and if he can continue throwing strikes there are going to be positive results.

Home runs could be another issue, as he allowed a 1.59 HR/9 in the Majors in ’17 (1.19 at Triple-A), but that’s not a detriment.  This is an ideal spot to get his season started and if he keeps the walks in check it could be just the beginning of his breakout party.

Luis Castillo – Cincinnati Reds – vs. Washington
What We’re Watching – Will he back up the hype?

Castillo was one of the more hyped pitchers as we headed towards 2018 drafts, ultimately finishing with an ADP of 92.0 (about the eighth round in 12-team formats).  Given that number, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to backup the hype or if he’s going to be destined to disappoint.  While we had him ranked among the Top 40 starters in our preseason rankings we’d lean towards the latter, and the matchup would certainly backup a disappointing debut.

The biggest thing people may be overlooking is a potentially misleading groundball rate during his time in the Majors last season:

• Triple-A (80.1 IP) – 39.0%
• Majors (89.1 IP) – 58.8%

He also benefited from a lot of luck during his time in the Majors, with a .247 BABIP and 80.1% strand rate.  None of this is to say that he’s going to be a complete bust in ’18, but with the risk of more home runs allowed and a regression in his luck he’s unlikely to match last year’s 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  Considering the matchup, it wouldn’t be surprising if he got off to a slow start.

Michael Fulmer – Detroit Tigers – vs. Pittsburgh
What We’re Watching – Can he rediscover the strikeout stuff?

There are many who believe in Fulmer, though we’ve been notoriously down on him and it goes beyond the injury that prematurely ended his 2017.  The biggest red flag was a drop in his strikeout rate (7.47 K/9 in ’16 to 6.23 in ’17) as he started throwing his sinker more.  The positive was more groundballs (49.2%) and his control is strong.  However without the strikeouts the overall numbers aren’t going to blow you away, especially pitching for a team where wins may be tough to come by.

He did show improved strikeout stuff this spring, with 15 K over 17.0 IP, but it’s vital that he carries that into the regular season.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, MLB.com

Make sure to check out all of our 2018 Preseason Rankings: