Streaming Starters: May 21-27: Are There Any Under-The-Radar Options To Trust? (Eflin & More)

by Ken Balderston

Streaming pitchers off the waiver wire can be a very effective way to add innings to your staff.  Maybe you missed out on some of your end game pitchers in the draft, have run into a string of injuries or just want to take advantage of some matchups.  Here’s a look at some options owned in less than 50% of CBS leagues to help you gain an advantage this week.

A Grade

To be considered in most leagues

No ‘A’ Grade options this week

B Grade

Some nice upside but also some risk

Zach Eflin – Phillies (vs. Blue Jays, 47% owned) ‘B’

Zack Eflin has been off to a hot start with the Phillies, and fantasy owners are starting to notice.  Through two starts he’s thrown 12.2 IP, allowing 7 H and 3 BB with an impressive 13 K.  He’s throwing his fastball about 2 mph faster than his previous two stints in the majors, at 94.1 mph, and it’s resulting in a healthy 9.4% SwDtr%.  Factor in some improved control (6.4% BB rate) and it’s easy to take notice of the young righty. 

Facing off against the Blue Jays used to be considered a daunting task.  Gone are Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacio even Trou Tulowitzki is on the shelf, while Josh Donaldson is a shadow of his former self (though he may be playing through injury, but no HR in his last 56 AB).  The team as a group are 18th in MLB in road OPS (.713) and strike out at a better than league average rate.  On the surface this might seem like a tough matchup, but there’s enough behind the numbers to make it a solid streaming option.

C Grade

Solid option but also a fair amount of uncertainty

Zack Wheeler – Mets (vs. Marlins, 40% owned) ‘C’

Since getting a spot in the Mets rotation back, saying Wheeler has been unpredictable is an understatement.  In 7 starts he’s 3 times allowed 2 ER or less and 3 times allowed 4 ER or more (including 8 against Colorado in NY).  Wheeler has put up a solid 9.00 K/9 and his FIP (4.62) and BABIP (.324) suggest he’s been bitten by at least a bit of bad luck.  A closer look at his successful starts, all three starts he allowed 2 ER or less, show that they came against very weak offenses.  Miami, San Diego and Cincinnati rank in the bottom third of the league in OPS, in fact the Marlins and Padres make up the two bottom spots overall.  Seemingly Wheeler’s Achilles heel(s) have been the walks (4.03 BB/9) and the HR (1.42 HR/9), but fortunately those also happen to be Miami’s weaknesses too, walking a paltry 2.91 times a game and hitting only 33 HR in 44 games.  While there’s always a chance a guy like Wheeler could implode, this really does look like a start to take a chance on.

D Grade

Significant risk but also potential to put up a solid outing

James Shields – White Sox (vs. Orioles, 8% owned) ‘D’

I have a really hard time recommending James Shields.  After years of reliability he hit a wall and went 2 straight seasons with an ERA over 5.00 (and an even higher FIP), before settling in at 4.88 ERA so far this year.  In his last 3 starts he’s thrown a bit healthier 4.05 ERA and 17 K and almost respectable 8 BB in 20 IP.  The 20 IP is impressive, it means he’s averaging 6.2 IP per start, not a regular achievement these days (especially by guys who are on the wire in 92% of CBS leagues).  He’ll be facing the Orioles, who except for Manny Machado have really struggled.  As a group they have a .700 OPS, and even worse .656 on the road.  They have some big time strike out contributors, including Chris Davis, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones and Chance Sisco, and as a group are striking out an average of 10.81 times a game on the road.  It’s tough to trust Shields these days, but the Orioles do provide an interesting matchup

F Grade

Options you might be considering but are not recommended

Lucas Giolito – White Sox (Vs Orioles, 37% owned) ‘F’

Yes I just recommended James Shields against the same terrible road Orioles offense (albeit with a ‘D’ grade) but it seems some owners still believe that Giolito is the same guy who flew up prospect lists 3 years ago.  After undergoing Tommy John surgery and falling in the 2012 first year player draft, the Nationals were very happy to see Giolito on the mound in the minors in 2014, settling in at 95-96 mph with his fastball and regularly touching 98 mph.  Fast forward to 2018 and his fastball average is 91.4 mph.  He used to get rave reviews for his hook, but now Fangraphs grades it -2.72 wCB/C.  He only throws first pitch strikes 50% of the time and that helps him “achieve” the 6.91 BB/9.  The matchup here is not that bad, so if you own Giolito you might want to consider starting him.  Reading between the lines the real question might be why do 37% of CBS leagues still own him in the first place?

Always open to comments or questions in the notes below, or on Twitter @kenintoronto

Sites consulted: CBSsports, MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseballreference

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