Streaming Starters: May 28 – June 3: Are There Any Under-The-Radar Options To Trust? (Lyles, Musgrove & More)

by Ken Balderston

Streaming pitchers off the waiver wire can be a very effective way to add innings to your staff.  Maybe you missed out on some of your end game pitchers in the draft, have run into a string of injuries or just want to take advantage of some matchups.  Here’s a look at some options owned in less than 50% of CBS leagues to help you gain an advantage this week.

A Grade

To be considered in most leagues

Jordan Lyles – Padres (vs. Marlins, 37% owned) ‘A+’
After starting the year in the bullpen, Lyles has moved into the rotation and is so far making the most of his opportunity.  In his first three starts, heading into Saturday, he’s thrown 18 IP with a 2.50 ERA and 4:1 K:BB ratio (10 K/9).  He’s been great at home, with a 1.85 ERA on the year including his relief appearances.  He’s been a bit lucky with a .225 BABIP and 78% strand rate, but the Marlins are hardly the team to make him pay, producing a league worst OPS both on the road and overall, including a sub .300 OBP on the road, and a mere 38 HR in 50 games.  There could be an argument to be made to start just about anyone against the Marlins, but given Lyles hot streak and pitching in Petco Park (where he’s really thrived this year) this is a matchup to stream even in shallow leagues

B Grade

Some nice upside but also some risk

Dan Straily – Marlins (at Padres, 31% owned) ‘B’
Though the Marlins have been bad offensively, Straily has managed to work his way into and out of trouble.  Through 5 starts he’s managed 26 IP, but only 19 K and an alarming 17 BB.  He still owns a 3.12 ERA thanks to a .200 BABIP and 90% strand rate.  Yes that’s bound to catch up with him, but the Padres have been nearly as bad offensively as the Marlins.  Overall they hold a .654 OPS,and are only slightly better at home (.674), but also lead all of baseball with 275 home strikeouts, or 9.48 per game.  Straily’s peripherals don’t point to extended success, but he’s shown he can limit the damage when guys get on and the Padres have shown they have a hard time putting up crooked numbers.

C Grade

Solid option but also a fair amount of uncertainty

Joe Musgrove – Pirates (vs. Cubs, 28% owned) ‘C’
Musgrove was an underappreciated part of the Garret Cole deal, seen as a young controllable starter but few noticed his upside outside of the Pirates front office.  After dealing with a shoulder injury in the spring he made his debut on Friday and blanked the Cardinals for 7 innings, striking out 7 and walking none.  Through 4 minor league rehab starts earlier this year he only walked 2 batters in almost 19 innings.  Controlling the strike zone will be key in a matchup against an effective Cubs offense, who are currently 8th in baseball with a .754 OPS on the road and can play the matchups with the best of them.  One thing playing to Musgrove’s advantage is PNC Park, which ESPN Park Factors ranks second to last in HR effect at 0.688.  So the metrics point to Musgrove potentially not walking many hitters and the park limiting the Cubs ability to hit home runs, which makes this an interesting matchup if Musgrove is available in your league.

Wade LeBlanc – Mariners (vs. Rangers, 12% owned) ‘C’
Similar to Lyles, LeBlanc also recently moved from the pen to the rotation and has been producing since the change.  In 4 starts, while generally short in length totaling 20 1/3 IP, he’s allowed 3 ER with a 0.94 WHIP.  In fact he’s pitched to a 2.65 ERA on the year so far.  The strikeouts aren’t always there, 6.64 K/9 as a starter, but the Rangers will help him in that area.  While the Padres lead baseball in strikeouts at home the Rangers lead in all games, with 524 in 54 games… almost 10 per game.  They also muster up the 5th worst road OPS in baseball (.661) resulting in only 102 runs scored in 25 road games.  LeBlanc might not be a household name, but part of streaming is taking advantage of hot streaks and strong matchups.

Daniel Mengden – Athletics (vs. Rays, 43% owned) ‘C-’
Daniel Mengden is having one heck of a month of May.  Going into Saturday’s start he had a 1.46 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 24 2/3 IP.  As impressive he had only walked 2 batters in those 24 2/3 IP, giving a guy with an anemic strikeout rate, a 7:1 K:BB ratio.  So what did he do in that Saturday start?  He proceeded to spin a 2 hit shutout (without walking a batter I might add).  The guy is on fire, the kind of streak you can’t ignore.  Why the C- grade?  The Rays are (surprisingly) a very efficient offense on the road, sporting a .760 road OPS (7th in baseball) and scoring almost 5 runs per road game.  They don’t need to be walked to get on base, as they own a road BA of .271, which is 3rd in baseball behind the Astros and Angels.  This is the concern, but like I said Mengden is hotter than Zoolander’s Hanzel right now so he can no longer be ignored.

D Grade

Significant risk but also potential to put up a solid outing

Home Bailey – Reds (at Diamondbacks, 7% owned) ‘D’
A 6.21 ERA and 5.43 K/9… yes there is ample risk starting Homer Bailey.  It’s been a long road back from Tommy John surgery, he went under the knife in May 2015 and has yet to put up an ERA below 6 in any of the 3 seasons he’s pitched in since.  To further scare you off, he’s walked as many (10) in his last 3 starts as he’s struck out (in 14 2/3 IP).   Arizona installed a humidor in Chase Field to start the year and it appears to be working.  Early predictions were a 25% drop in home runs, and 3.8 mph drop in exit velocity.  In April home runs were down from 2.6/gm in April 2017 to 1.9/gm in April 2018, and the Diamondbacks have a league worst OPS at home, sitting at .640.  They’re scoring just over 3 runs a game at home with 18 HR in 26 games, and are currently without AJ Pollock.  It feels like a mistake to say Arizona is a pitcher’s park, since it’s for years been a top hitters park behind Coors, but this truly is a pick-on offense.  The fact I’d consider recommending Homer Bailey proves it.

F Grade

Options you might be considering but are not recommended

Lance Lynn – Twins (vs. Indians, 29% owned) ‘F’
Lynn has been an effective pitcher for fantasy owners going back several years (minus the year he lost to Tommy John), generally being reliable to put up a healthy ERA and strikeout rate.  His walk rate, while not ideal, was healthy living in the mid 3.00s BB/9.  For this reason people seem to be waiting for the real Lance Lynn to show up, but he might never arrive… The guy we’ve seen this year walks the world (14.6%) thanks in large part to throwing less than 60% of his pitches for strikes.  It would appear he’s getting unlucky with the BABIP, .371, but a +40% hard hit rate will do that to your BABIP, and the Twins don’t provide stellar infield defense either.  The Indians have had a hard time scoring runs, especially on the road, but after a terrible March/April they’ve gotten on track putting up the second best OPS in the league in May at .807.  They’ve scored 127 runs in 22 May games, and have a patient lineup who can make Lynn pay for not throwing strikes.  There are plenty of reasons to let Lynn stay on your waiver wire this week.

Always open to comments or questions in the notes below, or on Twitter @kenintoronto

Sites consulted: CBSsports, MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseballreference ESPN, Fantasy Pros

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