2019 Breakout Watch: Why This Should Be The Year Jurickson Profar Fully Emerges

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The news that Adrian Beltre was retiring shouldn’t have come as a surprise, considering he played the bulk of 2018 at 39-years old.  Throw in his relative struggles this past season, hitting .273 with 15 HR with a significant jump in strikeouts (20.0%), and this seems like the time to end his Hall of Fame career.

When one door closes another opens, and Beltre’s retirement should mean an opportunity for Jurickson Profar to claim a full-time role instead of bouncing around a variety of positions.  The one-time top prospect showed glimmers of his upside last season, when he was finally healthy and getting regular AB across the diamond:

524 At Bats
.254 Batting Average (133 Hits)
20 Home Runs
77 RBI
82 Runs
10 Stolen Bases
.335 On Base Percentage
.458 Slugging Percentage
.269 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The questions for fantasy owners are going to center around his power and average, so let’s take a look at the production and if there’s upside.

Average
He managed just a .269 BABIP, though there are a few key numbers that make you think that the number is destined to rise:

• Hard% – 37.3%
• Oppo% – 27.3%
• Fly Ball Rate – 34.3%

While he did pop the ball up a little bit more than we’d like to see (12.6%), that isn’t enough.  He was hitting the ball hard and using the entire field, which should be generating a much better BABIP.  Just further helping to support it was that his Hard% climbed even further in the second half (44.6%), which led to a .270 average.

Profar’s approach is solid, with an 8.4% SwStr% and 33.3% O-Swing%.  He didn’t struggle against any one type of pitch, with solid Whiff% across the board:

• Hard – 7.02%
• Breaking – 12.03%
• Offspeed – 11.84%

With the ability to make consistent contact coupled with the other numbers, an improvement in his average seems inevitable.

Power
A 13.2% HR/FB isn’t going to raise any red flags and he also added 35 doubles and 6 triples.  It all started to come together in the second half, when he hit 11 HR over 215 AB.  Maybe he doesn’t keep up that pace, but is it really a stretch to again reach 20 HR, with 25+ realistic?

Conclusion
With a stronger average likely and the power at least continuing, if not improving, Profar should also help in both R and RBI.  His name has been out there seemingly forever, so it’s easy to forget that he won’t turn 26-years old until February.  As we said he was once considered the elite prospect in the game, and with eligibility at 1B, 3B and SS and the ability to back up the hype once bestowed upon him Profar is going to be a player to target on draft day.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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Make sure to check out all of our 2019 projections: