2019 Projection: Will Manuel Margot Finally Turn The Corner Or Will He Again Disappoint?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There were high expectations for the Padres’ Manuel Margot entering 2018, but he ultimately fell far short of expectations.  In fact, in what has become an outfield flush with upside you could argue that Margot was on the verge of losing his job altogether as he stumbled to the following line:

477 At Bats
.245 Batting Average (117 Hits)
8 Home Runs
51 RBI
50 Runs
11 Stolen Bases
.292 On Base Percentage
.384 Slugging Percentage
.281 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It would be easy to get discouraged based on those numbers, especially since he’s going to have to compete for at bats regardless of what the Padres do this offseason.  At the same time a lot of the underlying numbers Margot posted appear promising for across the board production.  Why?  Let’s take a look…

You would expect there to be a significant red flag for a player with his speed to produce such a disappointing BABIP.  That said, when you look at the numbers there would appear to be nothing alarming:

• Hard% – 39.3%
• Oppo% – 24.9% (39.5% Pull%)

So he hit the ball hard and was willing to use the entire field.  Throw in a solid approach (9.0% SwStr%, 29.0% O-Swing%) and does the average make sense?  You can point towards a 17.2% popup rate as the reason for his struggles, and it’s a fair concern, but not enough to justify such a poor mark.

You also have an intriguing home/road split, since you would think the wide expanses of Petco Park would allow his speed to play up better.  Instead he struggled mightily at home (AVG // BABIP):

• Home – .217 // .233
• Road – .271 // .327

Those road numbers seem far more believable, given his speed.  Speaking of his speed, only 11 SB in 22 attempts?  For a player who has stolen as many as 42 bases working his way up the minors you would think he’d be a given for 20+, especially with an improvement in his average, and reaching 30 wouldn’t be out of the question.

Margot is never going to be a significant source of power, especially playing half his games in San Diego, but he’s proven before that he can hit 10+ HR (he had 13 HR in 2017).  You put that all together and you get the following projection:

2019 Projection
.272 (143-525), 12 HR, 60 RBI, 75 R, 22 SB, .308 BABIP, .324 OBP, .421 SLG

There’s more potential, especially in the runs scored, depending on the production around him.  For a player that the rest of your league may ignore, given the struggles, now is the ideal time to be buying.  A .270/10/20 player has value, and with more runs and the potential to steal 30+ bases he could really be a difference maker.  The hype has quieted, making Margot the ideal Post-Hype Sleeper.

Source – Fangraphs

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Make sure to check out all of our 2019 projections: