Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Will David Dahl Continue To Back Up To The Hype Once Bestowed Upon Him?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We’ve heard about the upside of David Dahl, long considered among the top prospects in the game.  However various things have seemed to stunt his ascent, whether it was injury or a lack of playing opportunity in Colorado.  Given a chance to run with a job in 2018 he finally showed that promise in full force:

249 At Bats
.273 Batting Average (68 Hits)
16 Home Runs
48 RBI
31 Runs
5 Stolen Bases
.325 On Base Percentage
.534 Slugging Percentage
.311 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Given the hype that has previously been bestowed upon him it would be easy to go all in on his “breakout”.  That said, is it ever that simple?  Is there reason to be skeptical?  There certainly is, and it comes down to two main questions:

1. Is the power for real?
2. Will he make enough contact?

You would think the second question would be easy, with a 25.1% strikeout rate seemingly reasonable in this day and age.  However a 15.4% SwStr% and 39.6% O-Swing% tell a bit of a different story.  The fact that his Whiff% wasn’t particularly good against any type of pitch, including a 17.75% Whiff% against Hard pitches, further makes you skeptical.  The last time he had more than 100 PA in the minor leagues was in 2016, when he had 400 PA and racked up a 13.6% SwStr% (split between Double and Triple-A).

It seems inevitable that the strikeout rate inflates, and it could rise significantly.  That, mixed with what was a pull heavy approach (21.3% Oppo%) making him prone to the shift, could lead to a drop in his average.  As it is you can say that even the success he had last season was aided by playing half his games in Coors Field:

• Home – .326
• Road – .200

While he’s not a .200 hitter, there’s a good chance that he’s closer to the .240-.250 range (though maybe a little higher if he continues to pad his numbers at home).

The power is a little bit trickier, especially with the Coors Field factor.  He hit 13 HR in just 144 AB at home last season, benefiting from a 32.5% HR/FB.  Favorable home ballpark or not, can we really expect that type of number to continue?  He simply can’t maintain that pace.

Then you are going to have playing time questions, especially given the potential that he’s part of a platoon (.234/.258/.438 vs. southpaws).  We’ll have to revisit Dahl later in the offseason, as his value could change depending on the Rockies’ offseason maneuvering.  At the end of the day there’s a risk in his average and his power is going to regress, limiting the value regardless of the expected playing time.  There’s upside, but the downside and risk likely outweigh it.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Reference 

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