Fantasy Fallout: Josh Donaldson Lands In Atlanta, Bringing The Potential For A Significant Bounce Back

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Atlanta Braves made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason to date (the James Paxton trade was the other) with a pair of veteran free agent signings:

1. Brian McCann (1 year, $2 million)
2. Josh Donaldson (1 year, $23 million)

McCann will slide into the role left vacant when Kurt Suzuki signed with the Washington Nationals.  While McCann is a far cry from the player he once was, hitting .212 with 7 HR over 216 PA (63 games) last season, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside.  Obviously injuries did play a role and he’s just a year removed from hitting 18 HR over 399 PA.  Regardless he’s going to share time with Tyler Flowers making his appeal minimal.

Donaldson should have the far greater impact, despite coming off an injury plagued campaign where he hit .246 with 8 HR over 219 PA while playing for the Blue Jays and Indians.  While the power was down slightly (17.0% HR/FB), it’s not enough to cause concern and likely was in part due to the nagging injuries.

The same may be able to be said about his average, which came courtesy of a rising strikeout rate.  While he continued to stay inside the zone (24.6% O-Swing%), his strikeouts trended in the wrong direction:

• 2016 – 17.0%
• 2017 – 22.4%
• 2018 – 24.7%

Was it the injuries/small sample size?  A 14.1% SwStr% in April, albeit in 46 AB, doesn’t help his cause (nor does a 14.4% mark in May).  At the same time he’s generally been a slower starter with his career worst strikeout rates having come in April (21.1%) and May (20.7%).  In fact those are the only two months where he owns a career strikeout rate above 19.3%.

His 16.7% strikeout rate against fourseam fastballs was the best mark of his career, telling us that it’s not his bat slowing down that’s causing the issue (as does a 9.17% Whiff% against hard pitches).  More likely it was a slow start and then the missed time that had an impact on his timing (his Whiff% of 18.79% against breaking balls and 16.82% against offspeed pitches were both jumps from recent seasons) that caused the issues.

Getting things back on track in the strikeout department, coupled with his power and 41.0% Hard% (36.3% or better for four straight seasons), tells us he should be able to hit for at least a solid average (think his .270 mark from ’17) with .280+ unattainable.

Now add hitting in the middle of the emerging Atlanta lineup, giving him the opportunity for runs and RBI, and what’s not to like?  As long as Donaldson can stay healthy, which is a big if, he has the potential to post a line in the realm of .275/30/90 (if not better).  While his draft day cost will likely be down due to last year’s struggles, at least a little bit, there’s reason for optimism heading into 2019 (especially as he will be playing for a contract).

Source – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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