In Need Of Help, Would Brad Peacock or Collin McHugh Thrive If Returned To The Rotation?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Starting pitching has become a strength for the Houston Astros in recent seasons, but as of today their rotation is in flux.  While Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole remain atop the depth chart, the subsequent three spots are in question.  Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton are both testing the open market while Lance McCullers has been lost for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

There’s no question that Houston will acquire at least one option from outside the organization, Forrest Whitley, among the elite pitching prospects in the game, could make an impact early in 2019 and there are numerous other prospects who could contribute.  However there are two other intriguing options, both of whom have had success in the rotation before, who could be transitioned back to starting after spending significant time in the bullpen.

While neither of these two pitchers are guaranteed a spot in the rotation, let’s take a look at if they’d be fantasy options if the opportunity arises:

Collin McHugh
McHugh worked exclusively out of the bullpen in 2018, a first for him over the course of his career, and he thrived with a 1.99 ERA to go along with an 11.70 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9.  Control has always been a skill he’s possessed, with a career 2.50 BB/9 over 726.0 IP, but the spike in strikeouts is hard to envision being replicated with a move back to the rotation.

Pitching for short stints his fastball velocity was up on his fourseam fastball, with a career best 92.60 mph.  Trying to pace himself over five or six innings that may not be able to be replicated.

McHugh has started incorporating a slider, which he threw 24.09% in ’18.  With a 14.14% Whiff% it’s a nice addition, but it also doesn’t justify this type of spike (especially as his curveball was actually his best swing and miss pitch, with a 22.79% Whiff%).  Is the slider a new wrinkle?  Absolutely, but to think that he could replicate last year’s success as a starter is misguided.

You also have to factor in the obvious luck, as he benefited from a .248 BABIP and 84.7% strand rate, as well as significant risk of home runs (43.8% fly ball rate) and suddenly things don’t look as good.  Even in the bullpen he’s likely going to regress, but if the Astros try to move him back to the rotation he’s nothing more than he’s been in the past (good control, solid strikeouts and an ERA in the 4.00 realm).

Brad Peacock
To an extent Peacock is similar to McHugh, with 2018 being the first year he spent significant time in the bullpen (he only made one start).  However the transition was arguably better, as he’s never been a control artist before (4.02 career BB/9) yet everything played up:

• Strikeouts – 13.29 K/9
• Control – 2.77 BB/9

He posted an impressive 13.5% SwStr%, which makes sense as he started to heavily utilize his slider (40.17% in ’18) and that’s been his best swing and miss pitch (20.26% Whiff%).  If he were to maintain that type of usage it’s possible his strikeouts remain elevated, though more in the 10.0 K/9 range.

Of course working a full starters workload could lead to a regression in his control, something we saw as 2018 rolled on as it is (3.80 BB/9 in the second half).  There also is the risk of continued problems with home runs, already yielding a 1.52 HR/9 last season after generating just 37.5% groundballs.

Considering a 4.18 ERA in the second half last season and the questions already facing him, is anyone willing to bet on his stuff transitioning back to the rotation well?

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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