Now In New York, Is James Paxton A Locked In Fantasy Ace? Don’t Be So Quick…
by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
No one is going to question the potential of James Paxton, who has the upside of one of the elite starters in the league. The biggest question has always been his health, with 28 starts and 160.1 IP in 2018 marking career highs. If he can overcome that, just how good can he be pitching with the Yankees’ offense behind him?
He’s already emerged as one of the elite strikeout artists in the league, pairing it with equally impressive control. Just look at the numbers over the past three seasons:
Season
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
SwStr%
|
O-Swing%
|
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 8.70 | 1.79 | 11.7% | 32.0% |
2017 | 10.32 | 2.45 | 29.8% | 12.5% |
2018 | 11.68 | 2.36 | 14.3% | 36.0% |
It was 2016 that he started incorporating a “cutter” into his repertoire, a pitch he threw 14.36% of the time in 2018 and yielded a 23.06% SwStr%. That’s clearly a wipeout pitch, and a nasty one at that.
So far it all sounds good, and if opponents aren’t going to make consistent contact some of the other metrics aren’t going to matter too much. That said, we also can’t completely ignore his 39.6% groundball rate and 14.4% HR/FB. While those are extreme numbers compared to the course of his career, the groundball rate has been trending in the wrong direction:
- 2016 – 48.1%
- 2017 – 44.9%
- 2018 – 39.6%
Moving to Yankee Stadium and the AL East would it be a surprise if home runs became a bigger issue? Just further adding to that idea is the discrepancy between his success at home (2.98 ERA) vs. on the road (3.87 ERA) over the course of his career. The latter isn’t a “bad” number, though it was worse in 2018 (4.24 ERA) as he owned a 1.33 HR/9. With that type of rate being placed in Yankee Stadium, there is some risk that shouldn’t be ignored.
Does that mean he’s not going to be an elite starter when he’s on the mound? Absolutely not and at 30-years old the upside is there, but we also can’t say that he’s a lock to be among the elite. When coupled with the likelihood that he once again misses time there’s at least a small reason to suppress his ranking (think of him more as a SP2 type). That said, we certainly wouldn’t shy away from him either. Just make sure you have the depth to cover for any missed time.
Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball
** PRE-ORDER THE 2019 DRAFT GUIDE TODAY **
Pre-order Rotoprofessor’s 2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $7.75!! Click here for the details, but don’t miss out on the best bargain in fantasy baseball preparation.
Make sure to check out all of our 2019 projections:
Player
|
Date Posted
|
---|---|
Dylan Bundy | 10/22/18 |
Foltynewicz, Mike | 10/09/18 |
Gibson, Kyle | 10/29/18 |
Hoskins, Rhys | 10/16/18 |
Hosmer, Eric | 11/05/18 |
Wheeler, Zack | 10/02/18 |
Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=37597
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).