Thursday Night Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 12 (2018): Tre’Quan Smith, Adrian Peterson, Mitchell Trubisky & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Thursday games are always tricky, but when you have three of them it’s impossible to completely avoid.  Let’s take a quick look at some of the more questionable decisions for tomorrow’s games and try to decide who we should trust and who should be avoided:

Quarterbacks

Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago Bears – Quarterback
There’s a new level of concern, with Trubisky popping up on the injury report due to a shoulder issue.  While it was initially thought to be a minor issue, there is now real concern that he sits out.  As long as that isn’t an issue don’t let his down Week 11 deter you, having thrown for 165 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.  As we’ve learned he can always save his day with his legs and he’s facing the same Detroit defense he torched just a few weeks ago (355 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT as well as a rushing TD).  However with the shoulder injury and potential for him to be forced to sit down, there’s now too much risk to trust him.

Verdict – Start ‘Em (as long as he’s healthy)

Running Backs 

Tarik Cohen – Chicago Bears – Running Back
While Jordan Howard continues to get the lion’s share of the carries, he also continues to underwhelm (3.4 yards/carry).  He was bad against Detroit earlier in the year (21 yards on 11 carries) and that should lead to a little bit more of an opportunity for Cohen this week.  It’s not like Cohen has been tremendous, though he did have 6 receptions for 29 yards against the Lions in Week 10 and that’s an area that Detroit has struggled with of late (13 receptions over the past two weeks are the fifth most in the NFL).  Obviously there’s a lot of risk, considering his touches could be limited and the potential absence of Trubisky, so he’s more of a FLEX play.

Verdict – Start ‘Em (viable FLEX in PPR formats/desperation RB2)

Theo Riddick – Detroit Lions – Running Back
He was already expected to play a bigger role in the passing game, after Golden Tate was traded, but with Kerryon Johnson now sidelined Riddick looks like an even better option.  While he won’t get all off the carries (LeGarrette Blount should get the bulk of them), Riddick should at least get a handful.  He’s averaged 6 receptions per game over the past three weeks, including 6 receptions for 60 yards against the Bears.  Chicago’s defense is tough, but they’ve allowed 30 receptions to opposing running backs over the past four weeks (most in the NFL).  That’s going to make Riddick on intriguing play, though he remains more of an option in PPR formats.

Verdict – Start ‘Em (viable FLEX in PPR formats)

Adrian Peterson – Washington Redskins – Running Back
With Alex Smith out and Colt McCoy under center the wide receiving corps is going to be questionable, at best, while Jordan Reed is a locked in must use tight end.  Peterson, meanwhile, should see a fair amount of carries.  That said, is anyone willing to bank on him thriving?  Just look at what he’s done over his past three games:

• vs. Atlanta – 9 carries for 17 yards (1.9 YPC)
• at Tampa Bay – 19 carries for 68 yards (3.6 YPC)
• vs. Houston – 16 carries for 51 yards (3.2 YPC) with 2 TD

In other words he’s become a TD dependent option and faces a Dallas defense that’s allowed 4 rushing TD this season.  With Dallas not scared of the passing game their focus will be on Peterson, and that makes him a desperation FLEX play at best.

Verdict – Sit ‘Em

Wide Receivers 

Allen Robinson – Chicago Bears – Wide Receiver
Sure he was shutdown by Minnesota in Week 11, but the week before he destroyed Detroit with 6 receptions, 133 yards and 2 TD.  The matchup with the Lions is a favorable one, so the question is going to be whether or not Robinson gets the bulk of the opportunities.  Even in Week 11, when he struggled a bit (3 receptions for 39 yards), he was the second most targeted receiver for Chicago:

• Taylor Gabriel – 9 targets
• Allen Robinson – 7 targets
• Tarik Cohen – 4 targets

Considering the opportunities and the matchup, Robinson should be firmly on the WR2 spectrum (though there is some risk that opportunities go elsewhere).  However if Trubisky ends up sitting, he needs to get dropped down to a WR3

Verdict – Start ‘Em (viable WR2 if Trubisky plays)

Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons – Wide Receiver
You would think that the matchup in New Orleans is going to be a shootout, so there should be more than enough opportunities to go around.  That said Ridley has topped 50 yards just once in his past six games and obviously is the second option behind Julio Jones.  Sure Ridley made big plays early, racking up 6 TD over a three game stretch, but he has scored just once since.  There’s upside given the matchup, but he’s nothing more than a WR3 given the risk.

Verdict – Start ‘Em (viable WR3)

Tre’Quan Smith – New Orleans Saints – Wide Receiver
We’ve been waiting for the breakout and it came in Week 11, turning 13 targets into 10 catches, 157 yards and 1 TD.  After not being targeted in Week 10, can we really depend on him being a featured option once again?  The matchup screams for a big day, though Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara could easily be the focus.  That’s the risk that you take in using this type of boom or bust receiver, and it keeps him as more of a WR3.

Verdict – Start ‘Em (viable WR3)

Sources – ESPN, NFL.com

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Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 rankings: