Pats Rams SB Preview

As you’ve no doubt noticed, there was a disturbing lack of emails and updates during the playoffs. Sorry folks, but life intruded and I just didn’t have the time.

However, I did have a few thoughts on the big game, now that they’ve gotten there. Mostly, it’s the keys to the game when the Pats are on offense and defense. Here we go…

When the Patriots have the ball

When the Pats are on offense, it’ll come down to how LA defensive coordinator Wade Phillips does. He struggled to stop Brady for years (his defenses literally went almost 10 years without intercepting a single Brady pass), but he’s beaten the GOAT the last two times. And he won those games by bringing pressure instead of sitting back in a zone. (Also, it didn’t hurt that Peyton Manning helmed the offense for those Broncos teams.)

You can bank on Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will have a great plan entering the game. Because in the first two playoff games, his plans have been nearly flawless. Here are the numbers for the first two drives of the games against the Chargers and Chiefs:

• 25:00 of possession time
• 286 yards
• 9 of 10 on third down conversions
• 21 points

And if not for a foolish interception by Brady, it would have been 10 of 10 on third down and 28 points in four possessions. Impressive beginnings to both games, to say the least.

McDaniels is dialed in this year. The previous seven playoff games, New England failed to score a first-drive touchdown. This year, they were unstoppable early in their first two games.

This is where Phillips comes in. In the two games he beat Brady, his defense totaled 7 sacks and an amazing 26 QB hits! He brought pressure and it paid off.

For the record, both games were in Denver, where the crowd noise made it harder for the Patriots O-line to communicate. And that won’t be the case in the Super Bowl; that corporate crowd will only be slightly louder than a theater playing “A Quiet Place.”

But Phillips should have learned his lesson by now. He took one thrashing after another playing his usual “four man rush, seven man zone.” If he tries it again this Sunday, the Patriots will already be over halfway to a victory.

When the Rams have the ball

On Los Angeles possessions, it’ll all come down to whether Jared Goff turns the ball over in the first half. The LA quarterback gave up 18 turnovers (5 fumbles lost, 13 interceptions) this past season, which is slightly more than 1 per game. And Belichick defenses usually confused young quarterbacks, especially the first time they face a Belichick defense.

Add to that this year’s D-coordinator (and soon-to-be Miami head coach) Brian Flores, who employs multiple exotic defenses and schemes all over the field. The Patriots ran more stunts and games up front, and deployed more of the Amoeba, Bullseye, and “one down lineman” fronts than in past years. It’s paid off by masking a general talent drain, but that aside, it’s been extremely effective.

But it works best in the first half. Best evidence of that is the two Chiefs games. KC scored a total of 9 first half points in the two games, but they scored 62 total in the combined second halves. This shows the Patriots defense is hard to decipher at first, but once good offensive teams figure it out, watch out!

Goff doesn’t need to get off to an amazing start. His young counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, didn’t for the Chiefs, but they still came back to tie the game in the second half.

However, if Goff commits the cardinal sin, if he turns over the ball (especially in the first half), it’ll spell real trouble for the Rams.

The rest of it

As for the rest of it, it’s mostly a wash. The Patriots have much more experience, but the Rams have more talent. The Pats have a perceived coaching advantage, but no one has seen LA wunderkind Sean McVay in the big game, so no telling how he will do.

Each team’s special teams have advantages and weaknesses, but those should mostly cancel each other out. And both offensive and defensive lines are playing their best football of the season right now.

Aside from the experience advantage, the Patriots do have one other thing in their favor: the two-week break. Think back to how dominant they were from the get-go against the LA Chargers. That was after a Bye week.

Rest can’t be overrated for a team with this many veteran players. And the first two playoff games showed how much it helps.

That’s about it; hope you enjoy the game and that you enjoyed my thoughts on the season. I’m sure I’ll write up something post-game — here’s hoping it’s a celebration, not a lamentation

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-5 & 2-0!