Patriots Preview 2021: The Schedule

And finally, my latest futile attempt to predict the winner of each of the Patriots 17 games this year, as usual, broken up into quarters of the season (with a bonus Overtime round for the extra game).

(Note: for those keeping score at home, the closest I ever got was in 2007, when I predicted they’d lose the Ravens game and go 15-1. Rex Ryan screwed that up — he was the Ravens D-coordinator that called time out and gave the Patriots a second chance to convert a fourth down, which of course they did, en route to a 16-0 season.)

First Quarter

The Patriots host the Dolphins to start the season tomorrow. Honestly I’d feel better about this if Cam Newton was starting, because Miami head coach Brian Flores is an excellent defensive tactician and it’s Mac Jones’ first game. But I have to predict a Patriots win, because otherwise the ‘Phins can’t be the first 17-loss team — and that is my dream

(Trivia question: Prior to Mac Jones on Sunday, who was the last rookie to start a game for the Patriots at quarterback? Answer below.)

Next week is the Jets, in New York, and the Pats shouldn’t have any trouble at all winning this one. A young QB against a Belichick defense, and a team that finished 2-14 last year… Not. A. Problem.

The Saints come to Foxboro the following Sunday. This worries me a bit because Sean Payton is so good. But I suspect BB will have plenty of surprises in store for turnover-machine Jameis Winston, the N.O. quarterback. Put it down as a win.

Then some guy named Brady brings his Buccaneers to town for a Sunday night tilt to start October. It should be an epic game, and the Bucs have to travel across the country the week before to take on the Rams. Much as I’d like to predict a Patriots win, I think the older Tampa players will be fresh at this early point in the season, and their defense will school Mac Jones to some degree, so it’s the first loss of the year.

Second Quarter

The Pats travel to Houston next to take on the downward trending Texans. Houston looks pretty awful, and the continuing legal issues with QB Deshaun Watson left them with Tyrod Taylor under center. Another win for our hometown team.

And despite what you saw on Thursday, I don’t actually think the Cowboys that great; they are always more smoke and mirrors than actual team. In fact, they haven’t been great since the mid-1990s. Belichick’s record against the NFC is stellar, so mark this down as another win.

The J-E-T-S come to town after a week off to double-plan for the Patriots. It won’t make a difference; they’ll take another beating in Foxboro, chalk up another victory for the Pats.

For Halloween the Patriots travel to La La land where they’ll take on the improving Chargers. Second week in a row they’ll have to play a team coming off the Bye. Given the travel and the extra time to prepare, San Die… I mean L.A. could be tough. Young QB Justin Herbert shouldn’t be intimidated, he’ll be over 20 starts by then. I foresee a loss here.

Third Quarter

The Pats open November with a contest against the Panthers in Carolina. It’s tough to know how it’ll go, but BB’s good record against the NFC coupled with his defensive domination of new quarterback Sam Darnold (when he was with the Jets) should be enough to get the win.

I hesitate to say it, but the following week the Browns will give the Patriots some trouble. They have easy games against the Bengals and Lions surrounding the Pats game, and they are a serious playoff contender. Something tells me this will be a loss, one of the tougher ones to take this year.

On the other hand, I don’t see the Pats having much trouble with the Falcons on their only Thursday night game of the year. Atlanta has three road games surrounding this one at home, and no team handles the short week better than New England. Atlanta’s got speed; but Thursday night games are often slugfests, and the Patriots are better prepared for that. Win.

The Titans swing up for a game the next Sunday. Patriots have 10 days to prepare and Belichick will have revenge on his mind from the playoff loss two seasons ago. This will be a very close game but the extra prep time swings the game to a Patriots win.

Fourth Quarter

The last part of the season begins with a tough road game in Buffalo. I expect the Patriots to split with the Bills, but oddly that each team will lose at home. Buffalo has tough road games sandwiching this one (New Orleans and Tampa Bay). They won’t take their eye off the ball, but the Patriots actually play the Bills tougher in their stadium than their own. Pats win.

After a Bye week, the local 11 travels to Indy to take on the Colts. The result probably depends on who is the quarterback by then, as newcomer Carson Wentz has had injury problems, including this off-season. Both teams are coming off their Bye week, and I expect the Pats offense to start slow (as it traditionally does) after the Bye. Put it in as the Patriots fourth loss.

If I give the Bills a loss at home, then they’ll win the rematch at Gillette. Patriots lose the day after Christmas

“I foresee a Jaguars loss to start the new year,” I read that in a fortune cookie one time. Young quarterback with enough film for BB to break down his tendencies? Sounds like win #11 for the Pats!

Overtime

If those pesky Dolphins *are* 0-16 by this point, then I’ll fly to Miami and go to the game just to watch them lose #17! But alas, I doubt it. However, by then Mac Jones will be well established and Miami should be playing out the string. I know south Florida has been tough on the Patriots — but maybe, just maybe that was a Brady thing. Fingers crossed — victory will be ours!

Summary

For those of you who struggle with math, that puts the Pats at 12-5. Clearly a playoff team, probably competing for the division crown.

Is all that expecting too much from the young QB? Maybe. But in reality, my expectations have more to do with improved offensive weapons and a vastly improved linebacking corps on defense.

Time will tell; what are your thoughts?

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

PPS. Trivia answer…

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Jacoby Brissett, who started two games when Tom Brady was suspended and Jimmy Garopollo was injured in 2016.