Melvin comes back to the Bay

The Giants did what I hoped they’d do–get a new manager quickly and without a lot of fuss. Bob Melvin is well-known and well-regarded around MLB and he’s a safe, solid choice. Melvin is from Palo Alto and went to Menlo-Atherton HS. He played amateur ball at Cal and at Cañada College. The 1980 Golden Bears team that Melvin played for was probably the best in school history (44 wins, 10-3 at CWS). They lost to the Arizona Wildcats by one run in the semifinal. (Arizona won the title and their star player was Terry Francona!) Melvin was drafted by the Tigers and came to the Giants with Juan Berenguer in a 1985 trade. He was traded to the Orioles in 1989 for Terry Kennedy. Melvin has managed four clubs (Seattle, Arizona, Oakland, and San Diego) over 20 seasons. In 2942 games his record is 1517-1425 (.516) and his teams have made eight playoff appearances.

Speaking of the playoffs, I was astounded by the NLCS result. The Diamondbacks played two exceptional baseball games in Philadelphia to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The Phillies seemingly had the pennant in the bag after their Game 5 win but Arizona would not be denied. They got big performances from two rookies: pitcher Brandon Pfaadt and outfielder Corbin Carroll.

Bruce Bochy is back in the World Series after a rousing finish in Houston. Like the Phils the Astros got a huge Game 5 win on the road but the Rangers turned it up to another level for the final two games. They also have a rookie outfielder (Evan Carter) who looks like the real deal. I like to see new teams in the World Series and I think it’s good for the sport. Expanding the playoffs means more upsets and more “wild cards” and this year really showed that. The Rangers and Diamondbacks were the number five and number six seeds.Three 100-win teams (LAD, ATL, BAL) and one 99-win team (TBR) were bumped in the early rounds.

It’s clear the new mandate for any club is “just make the playoffs” as winning the division accrues no real benefit. Even a seven-game series cannot swing the odds enough towards the stronger team. Luck and chance still rule. A couple of big individual performances can really make impact in a week of baseball. Billy Beane famously said “my shit don’t work in the playoffs” and he was right. Teams have to be built for the long haul, but the short haul post-season is pretty close to a coin toss.

The Texas Rangers will have the home field advantage. Game One is Friday. Texas is listed as a -170 favorite. You’d need to bet $170 to get a $100 payout. Arizona comes in at +150, so you’d win $150 on a $100 bet. A betting line of -170 has an implied probability of about 63% which seems ridiculous. Texas is clearly better on paper but I don’t think any baseball match-up is that lopsided. As we’ve seen, they have to play the games, and anything is possible.

–M.C.