The Importance of Scenario Thinking – Catastrophic Event Edition

People become preppers for many different reasons. Phil outlined some of them in this blog. Regardless of your reasons for prepping, “scenario thinking” can open your eyes to new situations you need to address, identify holes in your planning, or just help you re-prioritize where you are in your efforts. Here are just a couple of examples. As you read through each of them, pause to put yourself in the situation and consider what your actions would be.

• Early in the day you learn of a major storm being projected to hit your area within the next four hours. Do you bug out or bug in? What should you have in your car to help make your plan work? Is there anything you’d take time to stop at the store for? What do you wish you had purchased yesterday? If any stores are still open, what is the first thing you will try to buy?
• You are out running errands when you learn that a nationwide trucker strike has just been announced and experts anticipate that it could last for months. Realizing that there will be a run on all the stores immediately, what three things do you stop to pick up before you go home? When the strike begins, what will you wish you had done the day before to prepare for it?
• You are going about your normal day when an earthquake occurs in your area. Your home suffers some damage, but is livable. However, clean water and electrical power will not be available for up to a month. Do you have a plan for gathering your children from their schools and meeting your spouse somewhere? What’s the first thing you’d do when you meet up with your spouse? What are the first actions you will take once everyone is home safely?
• In the space of one week the stock market crashes, the country’s financial rating is degraded significantly, most government workers are furloughed, and a huge number of private sector workers are laid off. The experts are predicting a three to five year economic catastrophe throughout the US. How long do you think you will be able to last in that economy? Will your job be secure? How will you pay your family’s bills over the coming five years? What will you wish you had done before the crisis to prepare for it?

These are just four made-up scenarios. You can do a better job of making up scenarios that are consistent with the vulnerabilities of your locale and what you think is happening in the world. What do you anticipate could happen? What should you be doing now to prepare for it?

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