Climate Doomsday predictions debunked daily

Video: John Christy’s stellar testimony – ‘The recent anomalous weather can’t be blamed on carbon dioxide.’

Australian Climate Commission called to task

The Australian Climate Commission sounded alarm bells about sea level rise in its Critical Decade report which shrilled:

Sea level rise is occurring at close to the worst case scenario, with the biggest rises happening on the southern coast.  Rises on the northern coast have been around or just below the global average.  The report concludes that a rise of between half a metre and one metre from 1990 levels is likely to happen by 2100, but more is possible.

The reality is quite different with studies reaching the opposite conclusion having just been published.  Australian scientist Alberto A. Boretti reports:

The average rate of SLR over the almost 20-year period of satellite radar altimeter observations is 3.1640 mm/year, which if held steady over a century would yield a mean global SLR of 31.64 cm, which is just a little above the low-end projection of the IPCC for the year 2100. However, he also finds that the rate of SLR is reducing over the measurement period at a rate of -0.11637 mm/year², and that this deceleration is also ”reducing” at a rate of -0.078792 mm/year³.

What it means
Boretti writes that the huge deceleration of SLR over the last 10 years “is clearly the opposite of what is being predicted by the models,” and that “the SLR’s reduction is even more pronounced during the last 5 years.” To illustrate the importance of his findings, he notes that “in order for the prediction of a 100-cm increase in sea level by 2100 to be correct, the SLR must be almost 11 mm/year every year for the next 89 years,” but he notes that “since the SLR is dropping, the predictions become increasingly unlikely,” especially in view of the facts that (1) “not once in the past 20 years has the SLR of 11 mm/year ever been achieved,” and that (2) “the average SLR of 3.1640 mm/year is only 20% of the SLR needed for the prediction of a one meter rise to be correct.”  Read more here and here

Meanwhile Greenland’s ice seems less vulnerable than feared to a runaway melt that would drive up world sea levels

An examination of old photos taken from planes revealed a sharp thinning of glaciers in north-west Greenland from 1985 to 1993, the experts in Denmark, Britain and the Netherlands wrote. Another pulse of ice loss in the area lasted from 2005 to 2010.  The discovery of fluctuations casts doubt on projections that Greenland could be headed for an unstoppable meltdown, triggered by manmade global warming. Greenland contains enough ice to raise sea levels by 7 metres (23 ft) if it all thawed.  ”It starts and then it stops,” Kjaer told Reuters of the ice losses. “This is a break from thinking that it is something that starts, accelerates and will consume Greenland all at once.”  However, Kjaer noted that the ice sheet did not get bigger in the pause between the pulses of ice loss.  He said satellite data of Greenland’s ice only dated back to about 2000 and the use of aerial photos had extended the records of the remote Arctic region back another 15 years.  The cause of the surge in ice loss in the 1980s was unclear but might have been linked to a shift in ocean currents. The underlying cause of a change in currents was unknown.  ”It is too early to proclaim the ‘ice sheet’s future doom’” caused by climate change, lead author Kurt Kjaer of the University of Copenhagen wrote in a statement of the findings in Friday’s edition of the journal Science.

Read more here

What we really need is more strategies like Meatless Mondays to save the planet now…