ABC News must be contemplating putting their offices in a rotating building. Spinning the polls they have been putting out to favor Hillary has become a bit like picking up a turd by the clean end.
But let’s look at the 3 polls released by ABC this week.
Poll – October 23, 2016
The initial tracking poll was released (Embargoed until) Sunday October 23, 2016 at 9:00 AM – but rest assured that the Clinton friendly media already had a copy and the Sunday morning talk shows made this poll their main topic. This poll was intended to drive home the effect that the bimbo eruptions and more-than-a-decade-old tape against Donald Trump were having an extremely negative effect on the Republican Candidate’s campaign. Especially among women!
The poll even carried the obviously intended message as it’s title “Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump“.
Bam! The media’s intended talking point for the last two weeks of the 2016 presidential election. “Despair and gloom on you Trump supporters. All is lost! Give up. Stay home. It’s over. Trump has won!”
I would wager that they wrote the headline before they took the poll. Then they set out to prove their narrative.
Then Republicans started looking at the internal numbers behind the polls. Or at least the paltry excuse for demographics they provided. Which was very little. But the poll surveyed 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 31% Independents. This was a 9 point advantage for Democrats. In 2012, Obama won with 38% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 29% Independents, only a 6 point advantage Democrats over Republicans. I think it is a safe bet that the enthusiasm for Barack Obama is absolutely absent for Hillary Clinton. And for a poll to use a 50% increase in Obama’s numbers to predict the 2016 race is beyond the pale. But the poll fails to mention how many women, blacks, etc. they polled.
But what they found was plenty of love for Hillary and lots of lost support for Trump. In their previous poll the prior week, Hillary lead 47% to 43%, a 4 point lead. On Sunday the lead was 50% to 38%. Hillary gained 3 points in a week and Trump lost 5. But even worse, according to ABC:
The results mark a dramatic shift from Clinton’s +4 points in the last ABC/Post poll Oct. 13. That survey was conducted after disclosure of an 11-year-old videotape in which Trump crudely described his sexual advances toward women, but before the events that have followed: A series of women saying he sexually assaulted them, which Trump has denied; his continued refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s legitimacy; and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.
Wow. Trump might as well jump off the Brooklyn Bridge, right?
The poll goes on to talk about the number of women that now support Hillary (without telling us what percentage of the respondents were female). College educated white women support Hillary over Trump by 32%. But there was some bad news for Hillary. She only leads white men by 3% at 44% to 41%. And they boast that they are the first poll to “discover” this. (I wonder why they are the first and only poll to get this result.)
The poll also denotes that Trump is only leading among white’s by 4%, a preposterous number when you look at Rasmussen – Trump +18 among white’s and IBD has Trump up +14 with whites.
Comparing the ABC poll to the rest, they seem to have serious flaws. But sometimes, in spite of their best efforts to push Hillary, at some point it becomes impossible.
Read on to see what I mean.
Poll – October 25, 2016
In the next poll, released Wednesday, Hillary has dropped from a 12 point lead to a 9 point lead. A 25% decrease in her support. Significant? I think it is, but ABC disagrees with me that a 25% drop in support is important. So unlike the Sunday poll, this one isn’t about how well Hillary is doing, it is all about Congress being in a dead heat. The headline? Hillary drops 25% of her lead? That wouldn’t do, now would it? So the spinners came up with “A Dead Heat for Congress, Despite Clinton’s Advantage“.
Right. That would be Clinton’s advantage that has dropped 25%. And the bad news is that while the Democrats still have an advantage in the demographics, it is not the 9 point advantage as the previous poll. It is only an 8 point advantage. 36-28-29 D’s-R’s and I’s. And we still don’t know about the number of men and women, black and white, etc.
Poll – October 27, 2016
In this poll, Clinton’s 12 point advantage has now dropped to 6. Half of what it was Sunday. that is a rapid and precipitous drop that should have the Democrats in a wild-eyed panic. But in searching for the clean end of this turd, ABC seeks to tamp down the Democrat panic and arrives at the headline “Slight Shifts in Intention Aid Trump Amid Anxiety about Both Candidates“.
Wow! Just wow. With her lead cut in half in 3 days it is important to know that people have anxiety about both candidates. It is also important to note that the oversampling of Democrats, which started at +9, dropped to +8 and is now at +7. So with a 2 point drop in the advantage for Democrats, Clinton has dropped 6 points overall.
And these partisans make the statement “The Clinton and Trump changes in the latest results are slight, -2 and +4 points, and not statistically significant.” So Clinton lost 2 points and Trump gained 4 and that is not significant? Way to spin it ABC! I’m sure of things were headed in the other direction and Trump dropped 6 points you would say the same, right?
This poll notes:
In terms of change from June, anxiety about Trump eased by 13 points among Republicans, 10 points among conservatives and 8 points among moderates. Anxiety about Clinton has increased by 11 points among likely voters who don’t have a four-year college degree, 10 points among men and 8 points among conservatives and independents alike.
Or another way to put this is Trump has seen a boost in voters confident that he is the best choice and a drop in the confidence of voters about Hillary.
The poll also notes that non-white’s are for Clinton 68%, however Obama saw 82% of non-whites, a significant drop. (non-white’s are just that. Everybody who is not white and includes Blacks, Hispanics, Asians and others.)
Non-white’s who are neither black nor Hispanic – all the rest – are split evenly between Trump and Clinton. Obama won that vote 66-31.
Are Polls tightening?
I have written on this many times. They say the polls “tighten” as we draw closer to the election. But often, we see the mix of Republicans vs Democrats get more realistic, which causes the tightening. We are at that point in the race where the pollsters shift from trying to influence public opinion to the point where they begin to actually measure it. All want to claim the “most accurate” title at the end of the election. Nobody will remember how bad they polled in September or before. But October – especially late October – they who do not have their stuff together will be remembered as inaccurate and their future credibility depends on being somewhat close. I would expect not only this poll, but most of the others showing a large lead for Clinton to begin taking the ratio of Democrats to Republicans closer to the +2 to +4 range with the Democrats having the advantage. Also, the number of Independents will rise (Some are polling in the teens where the actual number will be 30% or perhaps more) to more accurately reflect the Trump voters who are not Democrats or Republicans. I believe they are underrepresented in many of the polls. And they are breaking for Trump in significant numbers, as are the 3rd Party voters who have decided to vote for a major candidate.
Trump is rising at the right time. As the inaccurate polls start polling more realistic samples, we will see the race pretty much a dead heat by election day. Trump is hitting Hillary hard and this poll alone tells me he is doing the right thing. WikiLeaks, Bill’s rapes and gropes, the Clinton Foundation, Hillary’s ill health and the whole line of attack is working.
Go out and vote for Trump. The polls can be ignored.