Photo by DonkeyHotey
Good news for Trump Supporters.
Rasmussen showed on Friday – before the Trump Tapes leaked – Clinton with a 1 point advantage.
On Monday, their 3 day rolling average showed that the leaked tapes pushed Clinton out to her biggest jump yet – a 7 point lead over Republican Donald Trump.
But after his fantastic debate performance on Sunday night, the 3 day average which was taken Saturday and Sunday prior to the debate when the Monday polls were added in, Clinton’s lead was down to just 5 points. Which means that Monday was a good day poll-wise for Trump. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in Trump’s favor.
In comparing Rasmussen to other polls, Rasmussen seems to keep the Republican and Democrat ratio the same day to day. The rest, have a larger sample of Democrats and they seem to change the number of Democrats polled every time Trump has a “moment”. Of course, this may just be the way the poll came out, or some of the polls may actually be trying to push public opinion rather than measure it (Say it ain’t so!). But there seems to be more coordination than actual scientific polling going on at a lot of polling outfits.
The LA Times still shows Trump with a lead. Their’s is also a rolling average that holds the R to D ratio the same poll to poll.
So while it is hard to say what the exact number of Republican and Democrats will turn out on November 8th, keep in mind that Obama was +7 Democrats in 2008 and +6 in 2012. If you expect the same excitement and turnout for Clinton that was there for Obama in 2016, that is up to you. I expect a lower Democrat turnout in 2016.
But both the Rasmussen poll and the LA Times poll show a dip in support for Trump. Rasmussen is showing signs of a Trump recovery. But the LA Times poll did not show the steep change and Trump is still in the lead.
It will take a few more days to see which way this trends, but I will be looking at Rasmussen and LA Times as a more reliable indicator.
Photo by tedeytan
Photo by DonkeyHotey