Donald Trump has jumped back into the lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest Rasmussen Poll.
The poll is a 3 day rolling average, which means that all of the responses in this poll are from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Tuesday, I wrote the following:
Good news for Trump Supporters.
Rasmussen showed on Friday – before the Trump Tapes leaked – Clinton with a 1 point advantage.
On Monday, their 3 day rolling average showed that the leaked tapes pushed Clinton out to her biggest jump yet – a 7 point lead over Republican Donald Trump.
But after his fantastic debate performance on Sunday night, the 3 day average which was taken Saturday and Sunday prior to the debate when the Monday polls were added in, Clinton’s lead was down to just 5 points. Which means that Monday was a good day poll-wise for Trump. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in Trump’s favor.
So the data we were seeing on Tuesday was from polls taken Saturday and Sunday before the debate, but after the release of the “Trump Tapes” where he used some locker room language more than a decade ago, along with Monday’s results that were after the debate. So the Friday through Sunday poll showed Clinton with a 7 point lead.
Then when the 3 day rolling average included data from Monday, after the debate, Clinton’ lead dropped to just 5 points.
And the poll released today which was taken on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, Trump is back in the lead by 2 points.
And as I wrote on Tuesday about the validity of the Rasmussen poll:
n comparing Rasmussen to other polls, Rasmussen seems to keep the Republican and Democrat ratio the same day to day. The rest, have a larger sample of Democrats and they seem to change the number of Democrats polled every time Trump has a “moment”. Of course, this may just be the way the poll came out, or some of the polls may actually be trying to push public opinion rather than measure it (Say it ain’t so!). But there seems to be more coordination than actual scientific polling going on at a lot of polling outfits.
The LA Times still shows Trump with a lead. Their’s is also a rolling average that holds the R to D ratio the same poll to poll.
And I wrote It will take a few more days to see which way this trends, but I will be looking at Rasmussen and LA Times as a more reliable indicator.
Checking the LA Times, Clinton had a slight lead over Trump in the poll released yesterday (10/12) with a tight 44.4% to Trump’s 44.0%. In their poll released this morning, Trump has moved ahead of Clinton by a slight margin with Trump at 44.3% to Clinton’s 44.2%.
And with a rash of polls using far fetched samples like the Reuters/Ipsos poll that sampled +16 Democrats and the NBC poll taken by a Clinton polling firm, and a plethora of others showing Clinton leads, we have to realize that the media and the polls are trying to drive public opinion. So take them with a grain of salt.