Predictions for 2020 and the 2020s

Before you look at these predictions, you should see how accurate my 7 predictions for 2019 were.

In 2020… 1. Bitcoin will end 2020 above $10,000.

Unlike my previous two bitcoin predictions which were perfect (the 80% decline followed by the 100% rise), I’m unsure about 2020. As you can see from my 2030 predictions, I’m bullish long-term for bitcoin, but 2020 is a bit fuzzy. There’s a 30% chance that it will soar pass $20,000.

On the other hand, after doubling in 2019, it could also be due for a pullback in 2020. There’s a 40% chance that it end between $6,000 and $10,000. 

One thing is almost certain: 2020 will once again see some volatility from bitcoin, as usual. But I expect a healthy gain overall.

2. Mayor Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination.

At the end of 2019, according to Real Clear Politics, Biden has a solid lead nationally and in Nevada and South Carolina. He also leads in the betting odds. 

Here’s why I think the dark horse Buttigieg will win the nomination.

First, he has a good chance of winning Iowa and New Hampshire. Even if he doesn’t, he may come in second place. 

Regardless, he’ll get a ton of attention from those finishes. That includes attention from Nevada and South Carolina. Once voters from those two states start taking Mayor Pete seriously, he’ll move up in the polls of those two states (and others). 

Mayor Bloomberg and Biden are both focusing on the marathon; they’re willing to give up some wins at the start and they’re banking that they can catch up later.

On the other hand, momentum is important. 

The other thing that is important is what I call the Mirror Image Theory. I discuss that idea more in the last 30 minutes of my WanderLearn podcast with Sym Blanchard.

Simply put, incoming US Presidents are often mirror images (opposites) of the outgoing President. Just look at the 7 elected presidents. We swing back and forth. 

So what’s the most opposite of Trump?

It ain’t old-timers like Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

It’s Buttigieg.

3. Trump will lose the 2020 Election. 

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will inspire the lazy voters who sat on their ass in 2016 thinking that Hillary was a shoo-in. 

The only opponents Trump has a good chance of beating are the “socialist” ones (Sanders and Warren). 

4. The US GDP will slide into negative territory (a recession) in the second half of 2020.

The US economy has had a nice long run. It will take a break.

5. The S&P 500 will have a flat year. 

The S&P is around 3,250 now and it will end 2020 around the same place, plus or minus 3%.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ayhxanq5lTE

By 2030… 1. One bitcoin will be worth more than $100,000.

I’m not positive about this. Here’s how I break down the odds:

• 60% chance that Bitcoin will be worth over $100,000. 
• 30% chance that Bitcoin will be worth between $30,000 to $100,000 (at least 10% annualized return)
• 5% chance that Bitcoin will be worth between $8,000 and $30,000.
• 5% chance that it will be worth less than today.

Why? 

Because Bitcoin today is like the internet in the 1990s: although many people have heard of it, only early adopters and other geeks have it. Once the whole planet learns about it, you’ll have a spike in demand, but the supply at this point is effectively fixed. That will result in a price spike. 

No other good is like bitcoin. If there’s a surge in demand in housing, we can build more houses. If people love avocados, we can plant more avocados. If everyone wants gold, we can dig out more gold (or see how accurate my 7 predictions for 2019 were). 

Moreover, from a long-term monetary perspective, the US and Europe haven’t had high inflation since the 1970s.

We’re due.

But this time, the supremacy of the US dollar may not weather the storm as well as it survived the 1970s.

This time, China and other powers will unseat the USD as the sole, global reserve currency. A basket of currencies may take over.

In the 2020s, some countries will hold some of their reserves in bitcoin. They will shift away some of their US treasury bills and adopt bitcoin – not completely, but partially. Just like they will hold some euro, yen, and Swiss francs.

The only reason bitcoin may become worthless is if most major governments of the world collude to ban it and push it underground, thereby criminalizing it.

However, even that won’t make it completely worthless. Cocaine is illegal everywhere, but it has tremendous value in the black market. And bitcoin is easier to trade than cocaine.

As one bitcoin analyst said, “In this century, Bitcoin is either heading toward $1 million or to zero. It’s highly unlikely that in 2050, the price of bitcoin will be where it is today.”

2. The CPI will show that the USA experiences double-digit inflation sometime in this decade.

Maybe it will be in 2025, but at some point in the 2020s, the CPI (which measures inflation) will soar above 10% for the first time since 1982.

3. One ounce of gold will be worth over $5,000.

It’s about $1,500 at the end of 2019.

4. Syria will be a hot tourist destination.

Expect that over 20 million tourists will visit Syria in the 2020s.

5. China will undergo a revolution.

Here are my odds:

• 70% chance that the communist party will finally fall or be substantially weakened.
• 20% chance that China reverses course and becomes far more authoritarian.
• 10% chance that little changes.

6. North Korea finally gets freedom.

It can’t remain the least free place in the world forever. 

7. The USA will have its first female president.

They have three chances to pull that off in the 2020s: 2020, 2024, and 2028.

When will we get our first atheist President?

It seems that we’ll get a gay Muslim before that happens.

8. South Africa’s GDP per capita ranking will fall.

Right now, South Africa has the 7th highest GDP per capita in Africa.

I predict that in the 2020s, their ranking will drop to 8th or 9th. Namibia and/or Algeria will pass it. Its long-term fall from the #1 position in the continent will continue.

9. Facebook will be less important and powerful than it is today.

Facebook will still be a major player, just like AT&T, IBM, GM, and Microsoft are important corporations today. However, just like those four companies are no longer in their prime, Facebook will also have a relative decline. 

I wish I could have a metric to measure this, but I think it will be pretty obvious whether I’m right or wrong. 

Indeed, it’s likely that Google, Amazon, and Netflix will all struggle with new rivals. But I think Facebook is the most vulnerable.

Today, there’s at least one small company that nobody knows that will become a household name in 2030. I wish I knew what company that is!

10. We will land humans on Mars.

But they will die there.

11. I will have visited all the countries in the world

I’ve visited 123 out of 193 now. It would be easy to visit the remaining 70 countries. That’s just 7 countries per year.

However, what slows me down is my silly desire to write books about it. Here’s the rough plan:

• 2020-2022: West and Central Asia
• 2023-2026: East Asia
• 2027-2030: Oceania, Caribbean, and South America.